Opponents of the Belfast Agreement are planning a fresh challenge to Mr David Trimble's leadership of the Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) within the next month, The Irish Times has learned.
Two members of the Ulster Unionist Parliamentary Party last night said "another heave" against Mr Trimble was certain in the aftermath of the party's defeat by the DUP in last week's South Antrim by-election.
One of the sources said the 60 signatures necessary to requisition an emergency meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council had been held "in cold storage" and would almost certainly be submitted to force another showdown within two weeks of the party's annual conference on October 7th.
After winning last May's decision to rejoin the power-sharing Executive by just 53 per cent to 47 per cent, Mr Trimble was resigned to the likelihood of a further challenge in the continued absence of IRA decommissioning. However, confirmation of the renewed threat will surprise some of Mr Trimble's supporters who this weekend described the South Antrim result as "a short-term embarrassment".
The various anti-agreement factions within the UUP have still to decide the nature of the proposed challenge. On Friday, the Rev Martin Smyth MP said he had not yet decided if he would repeat his direct leadership challenge of last March, when he took 43 per cent of the votes.
The Lagan Valley MP, Mr Jeffrey Donaldson, had previously opposed a leadership attempt, and there are indications that some of his supporters would again favour a policy assault on Mr Trimble, demanding the party's withdrawal from the Executive on decommissioning and the Patten reforms of the RUC.
As discussions about tactics and timing continued behind the scenes over the weekend, the Northern Ireland Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, implicitly acknowledged the gathering crisis within unionism. Ahead of a speech this morning to the Labour Party conference, Mr Mandelson told LWT's Dimbleby programme: "I think that potentially we are in very great difficulties with the peace process. In particular, if we get the implementation of the police reforms wrong, the implementation of the Patten Report, then I think we will have very serious problems." That was why, he said, he called on people "to step back" and "recognise and understand the concerns that each side has".
In his speech this morning, Mr Mandelson will again stress the British government's commitment to honour "the letter and the spirit" of Patten, while insisting its implementation must be accompanied by "sensitivity to unionist concerns".
Monika Unsworth adds:
Mr Donaldson yesterday said if the UUP did not change its policy of sitting in government with Sinn Fein in the absence of IRA decommissioning, the electoral consequences for the party would be "dire".
On Saturday, he alleged that his telephone and those of up to 30 anti-agreement colleagues in the UUP were being bugged on the orders of the British government. A senior RUC officer had confirmed to him that a special military intelligence unit was keeping tabs on members of the anti-agreement pressure group Union First, he said.
A Northern Ireland Office spokeswoman declined to comment on the claim.
Also speaking at the weekend, the anti-agreement MP, Mr William Ross, said he hoped Mr Trimble "will realise that he has gone down the wrong road and that the electorate is telling us that fundamental changes in party policy are now necessary".