ANALYSIS: Michael D Higgins topped the poll in all but seven of the 43 constituencies
THE DECISIVE nature of Michael D Higgins’s victory in the presidential election was reflected in his almost uniform dominance across all four provinces, and that straddled urban and rural constituencies.
Mr Higgins won all but seven of the 43 constituencies and only three of those 36 constituencies were won by a narrow margin. He also came out on top in a few unexpected constituencies, including Seán Gallagher’s constituency of Louth.
Mr Gallagher won six constituencies, all of which were rural. They were Donegal South West; Laois-Offaly; his native constituency of Cavan-Monaghan; Tipperary North; Cork North West; and Cork South West.
Donegal has proved to be a contrarian county in recent elections and plebiscites. It was the only county to have voted against the second Lisbon Treaty. It repeated that pattern this week, when the second constituency, Donegal North East, supported Martin Mc Guinness most strongly.
It had been expected in the run-up to the election that there would be a dichotomy, with Mr Higgins performing more strongly in urban areas – especially the capital – and Mr Gallagher being a more attractive candidate to rural voters.
The dramatic switch of allegiance that occurred after RTÉ’s Frontline debate produced a number of tropes. On a national level, it led to a neat reversal of support levels for the two main contenders – this time Higgins had 40 per cent and Gallagher had 28. The surge in Higgins’s vote was evident throughout the State but particularly in his home constituency of Galway West and throughout the Dublin constituencies.
Gallagher may have benefited from a strong residual Fianna Fáil vote in Laois-Offaly. In Tipperary North, many Michael Lowry supporters seem to have plumped for him. Cork South West is slightly more difficult to explain. His wife Trish O’Connor is from Kanturk in Cork North West.
As for McGuinness, Donegal North East is the constituency closest to his home in Derry and, indeed, his mother is from the constituency, having moved to Derry to work in a shirt factory in the 1940s.
From a battery of impressive figures for Higgins, there were a few stand-outs. In Galway West he won an extraordinary 57 per cent of the votes. A few of the Dublin constituencies also surpassed 50 per cent, including Dublin South East (53 per cent); Dublin South (51 per cent); and Dún Laoghaire (52 per cent).
Gallagher struggled to break 20 per cent in the capital and polled as low as 13 per cent in Dublin South East, where unsurprisingly Martin McGuinness could muster no more than 7.5 per cent.
Gay Mitchell’s disastrous day was ruthlessly reflected in his figures in Dublin. In only one constituency did his support levels rise to double figures and that was in his own Dublin South Central where he got a paltry 12 per cent. David Norris performed more strongly in the capital, getting an almost consistent 10 per cent across the city.
For Mary Davis, another candidate who had hoped to do well in Dublin, the 3 per cent showing was redolent of her voting pattern across the country. Only in her native Mayo did her vote creep into respectability. The figures were very similar (and equally dismal) for Dana Rosemary Scallon.
Higgins performed solidly across Connacht and Leinster and in about half the Munster constituencies. The patterns from Munster indicate stronger performances in the cities (Cork and Limerick) and in his childhood county Clare and slightly less support in rural constituencies.
Gallagher performed strongest in rural Munster and rural Leinster and in the constituencies that straddle the border. His campaign team had always identified Dublin as his Achilles’ heel in terms of vote-getting. In the end, he also lost out heavily in the places which were expected to be his strongholds.
It was a strange election for McGuinness. His vote reflected traditional Sinn Féin voting patterns, with none of the party’s breakthrough constituencies in the general election shoring up his support. He performed poorly in some Munster constituencies, including Kerry North where the party has a TD. The Dublin constituencies closely reflected his party’s strengths – stronger in the north; almost non-existent in the south with the exception of Dublin South Central.
The contrasting fortunes of Fine Gael and Labour was perhaps best illustrated in the home constituency of Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny, where Labour have no discernible presence and Fine Gael won an astonishing four seats out of five in the general election. Higgins won 38 per cent of the support; Gay Mitchell won 9 per cent. That statistic was telling.
