As the Israeli army pulls out of south Lebanon, Hizbullah, the "Party of God", is celebrating its moment of glory. Most Lebanese acknowledge Hizbullah's central role in the war of attrition which is forcing Israel to withdraw its forces from the occupation zone. Nevertheless, scuffles have broken out in liberated Lebanese villages between Hizbullah fighters and members of the rival Amal militia claiming credit for their part in the struggle.
Hizbullah can afford to be generous. Since the beginning of this year the Hizbullah-led resistance mounted more than 1,200 operations against Israel's forces as compared with 1,400 attacks for the whole of 1999. Hizbullah combined this escalation with improved effectiveness, killing eight Israeli soldiers in 2000 in comparison with 12 during all of 1999.
The rising death toll showed that the new "defensive" strategy adopted by the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ehud Barak, when he took office last July was not working. Mr Barak had to pull out if he hoped to save Israeli lives.
An expert on the movement, Prof Nizar Hamzeh, of the American University of Beirut, says the military wing has a "high level of training: it is a professional machine turning out professional fighters". In the past year Hizbullah has upgraded its weaponry to deadly effect.
The Hizbullah secretary general, Mr Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, said yesterday it would continue fighting until all Lebanese land was free, including farmland belonging to the town of Shebaa, on the eastern edge of the occupation zone.
Although this area was ceded to Syria by the mandatory power, France, in the carve-up of Greater Syria in 1923, Damascus recognised the rights of Lebanese farmers to their land and agreed to a condominium arrangement for administering and policing the farms.
The Lebanese government, which has submitted its claim to the farms to the UN, takes the same line as Hizbullah on this issue. Therefore, this land, located on the slopes of Mount Hermon in the Golan, could remain a casus belli after Israeli troops withdraw from the rest of the Lebanese occupation zone.
Once all Lebanon's demands are met, Hizbullah is obliged to disarm and disband its military wing. And since glory's shelf-life is painfully brief, Hizbullah will no longer have the mobilising power it has had over the past few years.
While the movement may enjoy a surge of support for its candidates in the August parliamentary poll, Hizbullah will, ultimately, be cut down to its appropriate size and transformed into a party representing a substantial part of Lebanon's largest communal grouping, the Shia Muslims.
Dr Nawaf Salam, an adviser to the Lebanese Prime Minister, Dr Selim Hoss, says Hizbullah knows that "it can never secure its objective of imposing Sharia [Islamic law] on Lebanon and that it will not be able to create a high level of popular enthusiasm for its campaign to improve the socio-economic conditions of the country's poor".
Disputes have already arisen within Hizbullah over what it should do once Israel leaves the south and it is possible it could split into feuding factions.
The fact that reformists are gaining ascendancy over conservatives in the struggle in Iran, Hizbullah's main backer, could promote pragmatism in the movement's leadership, encouraging its evolution into a normal Lebanese political party.
Reuters adds:
Rapid international economic aid and French reinforcements for UN peacekeepers are essential to avoid more violence after Israel's withdrawal from south Lebanon, an expert on the Hizbullah movement has said.
Dr Magnus Ranstorp, a Norwegian academic who has influenced Israeli government thinking on Hizbullah, said yesterday the Iranian-backed guerrillas were well on the way to transforming themselves from a fighting force into a political and social movement in Lebanon.
"It is absolutely critical that Israel make a total withdrawal and show restraint at the first guerrilla efforts to drag it back into the conflict," Dr Ranstorp said.
Dr Ranstorp said it was unrealistic for Israelis to expect a complete cessation of violence, but there was a reasonable prospect that UN peacekeepers and the Lebanese army would eventually fill the vacuum left by the Israeli pull-out.
"French participation within UNIFIL [the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon] is absolutely critical, given its influence over regional players," he said.
Immediate aid to help residents resettle the zone occupied for the last 22 years and develop it economically was also vital to give the local Lebanese a stake in peace, he said.