ANALYSIS: The survival of the Dáil for a few more days will reside in the hands of the seven Independents
THE SIGH of relief that went around the political world on Monday, in response to the agreement on the scheduling of the Finance Bill, turned to a groan yesterday as the Bill’s prospects were thrown back into doubt.
The political instability that has done Ireland’s international reputation so much damage in recent weeks was suddenly back on the agenda as doubts were suddenly raised about the ability of our political system to deliver on one of the key commitments made as part of the EU-IMF bailout deal.
Tipperary North TD Michael Lowry surprised everybody by announcing that his support and that of Jackie Healy-Rae could not be relied on to get the Finance Bill passed.
Tipperary South TD Mattie McGrath put the icing on the cake by saying that his support could not be relied on either.
If those three Independents join the Opposition in voting against the Bill it will be defeated by 81 votes to 80, despite the fact that another Independent, Wicklow TD, Joe Behan, has announced that he will vote for the Bill.
If Lowry, Healy-Rae and McGrath abstain rather than voting against the Bill it will be passed but so many permutations and combinations are available among seven Independents that it is impossible to be definitive about how a vote will go.
At the very least the passage of the Bill is now in doubt.
The matter will come to a crunch at noon today when the Dáil votes on the second stage of the Bill.
Fine Gael, Labour and Sinn Féin have all declared their intention of voting against the second stage so the future of the Bill and the survival of the current Dáil for a few more days will reside in the hands of the seven Independents.
Government Chief Whip John Curran remains confident that he can mobilise the numbers but there will be a lot of nervous people in the Dáil today as the fate of the Bill is every bit as significant for Fine Gael and Labour as it is for Fianna Fáil and the Greens.
It is still possible Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan will be able to accommodate enough of the Lowry/Healy-Rae concerns to get them to vote for the Bill.
Some of their concerns have already been addressed but it appears that not all of them can be.
The same applies to McGrath.
It may be that the three Independents just want a final moment in the sun to get as much publicity as they can in the run-up to the election but it is a dangerous game for everybody concerned.
Aside from the concessions he is seeking, Lowry did have some valid points to make in a long statement yesterday in which he pulled no punches in his description of the shambles in Government and the self-serving nature of the Opposition’s response to a Bill which they want passed but which they don’t want the responsibility for accepting.
He said the power vacuum that had arisen at a time of national economic crisis was not of his doing and had been made all the worse by the internal disarray of the Fianna Fáil party and the destabilising and irresponsible “half in-half out” performance of the Green Party since last November.
Lowry made the point that he had signed up to support a coherent Government with a clear policy and not the fragmented remnants of the Government that now remained.
He also turned his guns on the Opposition and had an even stronger cut at the Labour Party which he accused of “blatant cynicism and political opportunism” which had been laid bare by repeated declaration that the Finance Bill had to be passed in the national interest but they were not going to vote for it.
Lowry echoed the prevailing political wisdom that the Opposition parties want the Finance Bill passed by the outgoing Government so that they could avoid electorally unpalatable decisions.
Equally important, the passage of the Bill will let the incoming government off the hook, and big differences between Fine Gael and Labour about the scale of the adjustment in the public finances this year will be a thing of the past rather than an issue for negotiation in advance of going into coalition.
“It’s time for the people to be allowed decide whether they can cope with Fine Gael’s medicine for the economy, whether they can swallow Labour’s delusional pills and for the economic policies of all parties to be placed on the table,” said Lowry.
On the other hand, Lowry and the other Independents who voted in favour of the Budget in December are also trying to have it both ways by having a sudden crisis of conscience about some of its key provisions as spelled out in the Finance Bill.
Brian Lenihan has already met some of their concerns and it is difficult to believe that some kind of compromise cannot be arrived at by noon tomorrow.
The alternative is just too awful for anybody to contemplate.
