Voting by secondary teachers on the Labour Court offer ended last night. At least 70 per cent of members voted in the ballot. With the Yes camp gaining some ground in recent days, the result is expected to be tighter than had been anticipated.
There is, however, widespread agreement that members of the Association of Secondary Teachers, Ireland (ASTI) have voted to end the ban on exam work. No votes have been counted so far.
One union source said: "No one knows the result. Many people not normally active in the union turned up and voted. It is hard to say what they will do."
Experienced activists suggest that the Labour Court package will be rejected by a 60:40 margin, although others say that the vote may be tighter. These are unofficial estimates based on soundings from members.
All sides agree that there has been a pronounced shift towards acceptance of the Labour Court offer in the past week as the temperature surrounding the dispute has cooled. But, on current indications, this seems unlikely to be enough to secure overall support for the deal.
On the exam ban, most activists estimate that over 70 per cent of teachers voted to end it, clearing the way for the ASTI to co-operate normally with the Leaving Cert and Junior Cert exams in June.
Counting of ballots begins on Friday and a result - or at least a clear indication of the trend - should be known by lunchtime. The turnout in the vote, at well over 70 per cent, is one of the highest in the union's history.
In its revised offer, the Labour Court acknowledges that ASTI members have a sustainable case for a pay increase, but it points the union towards the benchmarking pay review body, which it has rejected.
Rejection of the Labour Court offer will open the way for a new phase of the ASTI's pay campaign in September.
Secondary teachers will be balloted again towards the end of this month on a fresh programme of industrial action for the next school year. Schools could close again in September if the ASTI decides to withdraw from voluntary supervision and substitution duties.
Next week, officials from the other teaching unions - the INTO and the TUI - are due to meet Department of Education officials to work out a pay structure for these duties. The result of the vote will be considered by a meeting of the 180-member ASTI central executive council next week.