LEBANON:The opposition in Lebanon is bidding for a greater share of power for Shias and their allies, writes Michael Jansen
Messages of support from western and Arab leaders for Lebanon's beleaguered government have increased its determination to stand firm against Hizbullah's demand for it to stand down. In addition, it may have boosted the Shia movement's readiness to escalate its protest. A source close to Hizbullah observed that tension is rising and the "polarisation of the country is unprecedented," threatening the very existence of Lebanon.
The government and the Hizbullah-led opposition want the situation to remain peaceful but, as Sunday's shooting of a Hizbullah supporter in a Sunni area revealed, hotheads and agents provocateurs seek to stir up trouble.
Last Friday thousands of Hizbullah supporters began an indefinite mass sit-in outside government offices at the Ottoman-era Serai in central Beirut with the aim of bringing down the rump cabinet under premier Fuad Siniora.
Six ministers resigned last month to protest at Mr Siniora's refusal to form a national unity government by bringing in followers of Hizbullah ally Michel Aoun, a Maronite Catholic politician and former head of the army. Industry minister Pierre Gemayel was assassinated a week ago, reducing the cabinet to 17 ministers.
The struggle has been mischaracterised as a showdown between the anti-Syrian multiconfessional government backed by the West and pro-Syrian Shia Hizbullah and Amal supported by Damascus and Tehran. The situation is far more complex.
While the ruling coalition consists of Maronite Christians, Sunnis, and Druze, the opposition is not confined to Shias, the largest community, but also includes two Maronite Christian parties, the Communists, and the Greek Orthodox Syrian Social Nationalist Party.
The opposition claims to have the support of more voters than the government and is calling for the formation of a national unity government, to reflect this reality, or fresh elections. As far as backers are concerned, western politicians have been parading through Beirut to bolster the government while Syria and Iran have not intervened openly.
Hizbullah and Amal also represent the interests of poor, marginalised Shias, who were ruled by feudal lords until Amal was founded in 1974 with the aim of improving the lot of the Shias. At that time it was feared Amal would mount a Shia "revolution" against the political status quo laid down by the confessional system according to which each community is assigned a fixed role with Maronites taking the presidency and command of the army, Sunnis the premiership, and Shias the parliamentary speakership.
The feared revolution was pre-empted by the civil war which ended with the signing by all Lebanese factions of the Taif agreement calling for the abolition of confessionalism. But politicians and warlords who owed their positions to confessionalism have refused to make the reforms needed to plant democracy. As long as Syria was involved in running Lebanon, Hizbullah was compelled to accept fewer seats in parliament than it could have won and to give seats to less popular Amal.
The 2005 rollback under western pressure of Syrian influence in Lebanon ended Damascus's ability to rein in Hizbullah which is now bidding for a fair share of power for Shias and their allies. The opposition is strengthened by the perception that the Siniora government is weak and ineffective. It did little to assist the million people driven from their homes during Israel's summer offensive and has done little to rebuild devastated urban areas or southern cities and towns.
One of the ministers who resigned, Talal Sahili, called on the government to resume dialogue with the opposition. He said that the opposition does not want to "depose the current cabinet in order to monopolise the country. What we are seeking is merely a true partnership".