GAELIC GAMES All-Ireland SHC Final:THE NEWS last night that Kilkenny had dropped two thrice-decorated All Stars, James Fitzpatrick and Martin Comerford, appeared to give substance to the suspicion that not all has been well with the team in the campaign to date.
So far this championship the holders, now on the cusp of a record four-in-a-row, haven’t been the relentless force of last year and manager Brian Cody has obviously decided changes were needed.
Fitzpatrick has struggled since having to battle mumps, which undermined his training schedule, earlier in the year, whereas Comerford’s form has been up-and-down despite an important scoring contribution against Dublin in the Leinster final.
More important has obviously been the form of Derek Lyng and especially Richie Hogan in training. It’s also significant that the forward line-up is virtually the same (with the exception of Richie Power who was injured in May) as that which lined out against Tipperary in the NHL final.
Hogan managed 1-10, including 1-3 from play, that day and you sensed that he answered any remaining doubts that may have lingered in the manager’s head about his fitness to serve in the front line.
Tipperary took great heart that day from the extent to which they pushed Kilkenny both physically and on the scoreboard for 90 minutes. But tomorrow is different. Being able to catch their opponents unawares in May is no guarantee of being able successfully to repeat the dose in September.
And surely Liam Sheedy will have learned from Waterford’s mortification last year that trying to soften up the champions is an unlikely avenue to success. They’ll happily take hitting all afternoon but won’t be as sanguine about being run at and turned.
Tipp’s biggest hope is that Kilkenny’s tank has run almost dry and that there isn’t the major performance that many people believe left in them.
The Munster champions have a strong input of talented young players, who have experience and confidence on the big stage.
But this is still their first senior All-Ireland and their first summer meeting with the champions since 2003. Tomorrow will be more intense and claustrophobic than anything they have experienced.
Jackie Tyrrell for instance did a showcase job on John Mullane in the semi-final and won’t be inhibited facing Noel McGrath, despite the formidable weaponry of the Young Hurler of the Year elect.
Although the changes made by Kilkenny have been brought about by a need to improve they may well have that effect.
Michael Rice and Lyng form an athletic and physical centrefield that will match the strengths of James Woodlock and Shane McGrath. The league final also demonstrated what an effective impact sub Fitzpatrick made when brought in after half-time, which may have been another factor in the switch.
Tipperary don’t have many options on the bench and it’s hard to think of anyone of the calibre of Fitzpatrick or TJ Reid, who could come into the match and make something happen.
Then there’s the elephant in the dressing room, the continuing questions about Tipp’s ability to win ball in the half forwards, not a great reservation against as hungry and acquisitive a half-back line as Tommy Walsh, Brian Hogan and John Tennyson.
If Kilkenny’s decline is real and sustained Tipperary have the raw material to exploit the situation. But the champions are on the verge of history and harbour lingering resentment about some of their opponents’ behaviour in the league final.
Motivation won’t be a problem for the champions.
In the last episode :They haven't met in a final for 18 years when Michael Cleary's free skidded into the net for the decisive score in Tipperary's win. But there have been semi-final encounters in the years since the new championship structures made that possible. Kilkenny won easily in 2003 and dethroned Tipp in a great match a year earlier.
You bet :At 5 to 2 Tipp have been drifting all week and bookies continue to take money on the champions at 2 to 5. The handicap poised at -4 with Kilkenny 6 to 5 and Tipp 5 to 6 (+4). Backing a first All-Ireland final draw in 50 years is a comparatively tight 10 to 1. [Boylesports].
On your marks :Henry Shefflin is such a key performer for Kilkenny that singling him out is an obvious diagnostic. Tipp could keep him quiet-ish and still lose but if he plays well the four-in-a-row is all but assured. He can operate anywhere in attack but it will be a contra-indicator if his first marker does well enough for the great man to have to move.
Gaining ground :Respective Croke Park records vary significantly. The semi-final was Tipp's first win here in six years whereas Kilkenny have lost only four times at the venue in 10 championships albeit that all of their championship defeats in that time have been in the stadium.
Just the ticket : Sold out
Crystal gazing : Kilkenny need to dip and Tipperary to kick on if there is to be a surprise and getting sufficient movement on both graph-lines makes that unlikely.