A wave of displaced Lebanese have come back to their homes, sweeping aside the warriors on both sides, writes Michael Jansen in Beirut
Lebanon's desperate displaced citizens yesterday implemented the UN ceasefire resolution by piling their scant luggage into their cars and going to their homes in the battleground below the Litani river, the Bekaa Valley and the blasted and battered southern suburbs of the capital.
The wave of tens of thousands who took refuge in Beirut, the mountains and Syria has swept aside the warriors on both sides and is forcing the Lebanese government, the UN and the international community to meet the challenge of providing instant security, food, water, and medical care for people who are returning without knowing what has happened to their homes.
The displaced have taken a leaf from Israel's operating manual and created new facts on the ground none of the interested parties can ignore. Both Hizbullah and Israel will, for the time being at least, have to hold their fire. The weak Lebanese government, Israel and the international community will have to agree to Hizbullah's terms for continuation of the ceasefire, Israel will have to pull out within a week or two and Hizbullah's fighters will have to avoid firefights with retreating Israeli soldiers.
In the view of Chibli Mallat, a lawyer and dissident member of the US- and French-allied March 14th movement, which holds the majority of seats in parliament, the "next two weeks are critical. The longer the ceasefire sticks, the more likely it will stick."
"If the reinforced UN force and the Lebanese army are deployed soon there is a chance for a solution. Once the Israelis withdraw, the south will not be an Israeli problem." It will, instead, be a problem for the Lebanese government and Hizbullah to sort out. However, Mr Mallat says the government "is scared to death of Hizbullah", which has emerged greatly strengthened from this conflict. Prime minister Fuad Siniora has "manoeuvred well" and has enhanced his credibility.
Abdo Saad, managing director of the Beirut Centre for Research and Information, an independent analyst who is very familiar with Hizbullah's thinking, argues that the ceasefire is still "very fragile".
Israel seeks to "diminish the size of its defeat" by scoring against Hizbullah while Hizbullah intends to "force Israel out even before the arrival of Unifil", the UN interim force, which is set to be expanded from 2,000 to 15,000 men and deployed alongside an equal number of Lebanese army troops.
If, however, Israel abides by the April 1996 understanding which bans attacks on civilians, Hizbullah will reciprocate - although there could be skirmishes between Hizbullah fighters and Israeli soldiers in the mountains of the south.
Mr Saad says: "Hizbullah will not disarm. Hizbullah has convinced people of the value of its arms to Lebanon. Hizbullah wants to rearm. It has scored a victory and humiliated Israel. Hizbullah will not pull its fighters out of the south.
"They live there. There are fighters in every family, in every village. They will keep their arms and no one will dare to search for them. Not the army, not Unifil."
This means, essentially, that the status quo ante will be reinstated. In Mr Saad's opinion, Israel understands the situation, but it is the US which is pressing Lebanon on the issue of disarming Hizbullah. He believes Hizbullah is likely "to be very tough on its political foes and very good to its allies", like Nabih Berri, the Shia parliamentary speaker, and two Christian allies, Gen Michel Aoun and Suleiman Frangie.
Hizbullah can be expected to push for a national unity government which includes Gen Aoun and Mr Frangie.
Such an expansion of the government would strengthen Hizbullah's political position and weaken the March 14th movement and the US, blamed by the Lebanese more than Israel for the conflict.
By securing amendments in the unacceptable draft Security Council resolution, France has improved its political standing with the Lebanese, but could still lose the gains it has made if it joins forces with Washington against Hizbullah.