THE SCALE of the latest explosive device in London, and the nature of recent statements by leading Sinn Fein members support speculation that republicans are committed to an election campaign platform which will combine IRA militancy with a reassertion of old style calls for a united Ireland.
In a keynote speech in Dublin tomorrow at the main Sinn Fein commemorative rally for the 80th anniversary of the Easter Rising the Sinn Fein president, Mr Gerry Adams, is likely to set an uncompromising tone for the campaign now getting under way.
The option of a last minute tactical restoration of the IRA ceasefire in advance of the June 10th deadline for the start of all party negotiations will be retained.
But prospects of a renewed ceasefire ahead of the elections on May 30th have all but disappeared. The Hammersmith Bridge bomb has focused new significance on recent Sinn Fein statements. The party's national chairman, Mr Mitchel McLaughlin, and ardchomhairle member, Mr Martin McGuinness, have both, in recent days, voiced stark predictions that there is no prospect of a renewed IRA ceasefire while the two governments pursue their present policies.
Each man was careful to qualify his prediction as personal opinion, but the tone and coincidence of the statements pointed to a wider policy consensus.
As a result, Sinn Fein's election campaign will appeal to core republican support on the traditional demands for full Irish independence and national self determination. It will rely heavily on a restatement of the aspirations in the 1916 Proclamation.
Such a fundamentalist campaign platform will eliminate Sinn Fein's chances of broadening its electoral support base into the large sectors of nationalism which reject violence and coercion. It may well have been forced upon the party by an IRA refusal to countenance a renewed formal cessation of violence under current conditions.
However, it could also have been influenced by a pragmatic recognition that the election is confined to Northern Ireland, where the division of electoral support between constitutional nationalism and physical force republicanism has been well rehearsed and clearly defined.
The continuing bombing campaign will put renewed strain on the loyalist paramilitaries' ceasefire, but the fringe loyalist parties which "closely reflect their views" will be anxious to maximise their performance on their first serious electoral outing by maintaining an image of discipline and commitment to democratic principles.
Mr David Adams, spokesman for the Progressive Unionist Party (PUP), said yesterday that he was not in a position to predict what the loyalist paramilitaries' reaction to the latest bomb might be. But he pointed out that those groups had shown "great restraint and great integrity". There was no indication that that would cease to be the case.
Last night, Mr Adams rejected Mr John Major's comments in the House of Commons as an effort to discriminate against Sinn Fein and its electorate, saying that Mr Major must move beyond the politics of condemnation and exclusion.
The fortunes of the various parties in the forthcoming election campaign will be influenced by developments, largely unpredictable, in regard to a series of contentious Orange marches due to take place in coming weeks.