Hopes recede of early solution in North crisis

The Irish and British governments have not only failed to agree on an answer to the question of how to bring the North's political…

The Irish and British governments have not only failed to agree on an answer to the question of how to bring the North's political institutions back into operation. They have failed to agree on how to search for that answer, and they have failed to agree how long that search should take.

Indeed after three hours of talks between themselves and with the Ulster Unionist Party, Sinn Fein and the SDLP, Mr Ahern and the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, appeared able to agree only on the most basic generalities: that the Belfast Agreement was the only show in town; decommissioning should happen; the suspension of the institutions should end as soon as possible.

The series of meetings at Downing Street conspicuously failed to add any sense of momentum to the aspiration to restore the institutions. The Government's regularly stated hope that this should be done in "days rather than weeks" has taken a severe knock. Today's departure by the UUP leader, Mr David Trimble, for a week-long visit to the US, and the departure of the Northern Secretary, Mr Peter Mandelson, next Tuesday, also to the US, suggests that resolution within days is out of the question.

However, the Government still believes the decommissioning issue can be resolved, but that further IRA movement on the issue will come only when other aspects of the agreement important to nationalists have been implemented.

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Mr Ahern said last night that he and the Mr Blair were convinced that there was "no reasonable alternative to the full implementation of the Belfast Agreement". In this context "full implementation" is code for the Patten reforms of the RUC, reform of the criminal justice system, the dismantling of military bases and reduction of troop numbers.

"Pending the re-establishment of the institutions, we [Mr Ahern and Mr Blair] will continue to implement resolutely all the outstanding elements of it within our responsibility," he said.

This is a long-term strategy, and Irish Government sources privately conceded last night that the hope of rapid resolution has waned.

But while the Government's best option appears to have gone, Mr Trimble's also failed to materialise yesterday. After his meeting in Downing Street yesterday with Mr Ahern and Mr Blair, Mr Trimble said that inter-party communications would now take place but that falls far short of the `review clause' that he favours. Downing Street sources predicted the same yesterday afternoon.

However, the Government didn't agree, and no inter-party talks were announced. Inter-party talks were a "review" by another name, Government sources said, and the Government was opposed to a review as favoured by Mr Trimble.

The Government wants to focus the next period of discussions on the narrow issue of how to achieve decommissioning and how to restart the institutions. A "review" or "inter-party talks", they fear, would open up the prospect of revisiting RUC reform and other issues important to nationalists and opposed by unionists.

Afterwards, Downing Street sources played down the lack of any specific structure for the way forward, maintaining that yesterday's meetings had always been about simply "taking stock". Yesterday's meetings therefore failed not only to restore some impression of momentum to the faltering process: they also failed to restore an impression of British-Irish unity after over a week of fractious relations.

The IRA's withdrawal of its representative from the de Chastelain commission on Tuesday, and Mr David Trimble's dismissal as a "publicity stunt" the IRA statements to de Chastelain of last Friday both gave an impression of backward movement.

The other issue the governments attempted to deal with was the tension that emerged between them over the past week. Mr Mandelson's decision to suspend the institutions - exactly in line with Mr Trimble's request for an announcement on the 6 p.m. news - annoyed the Government. However, Dublin understood Mr Mandelson's motivation to help Mr Trimble - who after all had "jumped first" last November - get through a difficult party meeting the following day.

But after suspending the institutions Mr Mandelson then proceeded to suggest on television that he had no idea what proposals the IRA was making to Gen de Chastelain, despite the fact that the Government had kept him informed on the emerging proposals. Attempts on Friday night to agree on a joint statement from the two governments failed: it was left to an Irish Government spokesman to assert to journalists that both governments saw the new de Chastelain report as "very significant". Mr Mandelson had implied he held the opposite view earlier.

There is a perception in Government circles that the Northern Secretary and his officials at the Northern Ireland Office have had a different emphasis than Mr Blair and his Downing Street officials since last Friday. An impression emerged over the past fortnight that Mr Mandelson was more comfortable with the unionist preference for suspending the institutions for a significant period to allow a broad-ranging review to take place, while Downing Street was more open to accepting the Government view that the main priority if progress was to be made was to restore the institutions as quickly as possible without any review.

Government sources believe Mr Mandelson has been perceived by nationalists as having spent the past week associated with the unionist position rather than having moved, immediately after doing what he thought necessary to save Mr Trimble, to a position of seeking concessions from both sides in order to restore the institutions.

Mr Ahern and Mr Blair will talk again by telephone this morning. But hopes of a quick fix appear to be gone.