The Irish Times Political Staff have conducted aconstituency-by-constituency analysis of the 42 contests in the forthcominggeneral election in May - and have come up with surprising indicators.
Fianna Fáil 73; Fine Gael 50; Labour 25; Sinn Féin 4; PDs 3; Greens 2; Socialist Party 1; Others 8
The national opinion polls say one thing. Last week's Irish Times/MRBI poll gives Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats a fighting chance of being re-elected. But the Opposition parties say another. Fine Gael and Labour continually assert that the general election will be won, or lost, in the constituencies on the ground.
The Irish Times set out to test this theory. The Political Staff spoke to a number of party strategists, TDs and candidates in the different constituencies before making their assessments. By definition, these judgment calls are unscientific and imprecise and may be overtaken by events.
The battleground for the election will be in 42 constituencies in May, an increase of one since 1997. The new constituency is Dublin Mid-West, a three-seater. There are changes in the number of seats in five other constituencies. Dublin North-East, Dublin North-West and Dublin West go from four to three seats. Dublin South-Central goes from four to five seats. Dublin South-West drops from five to four seats.
For this election also, Carlow/Kilkenny becomes a four-seater because of the automatic re-election of the Ceann Comhairle.
The map (opposite) shows the re-drawn battleground for 2002 with the current breakdown of existing seats in the run-up to the contest. Some TDs are changing constituencies.
Before making the prediction, it is important to remember that Fianna Fail got a 12-seat bonus in 1997 with 39.33 per cent of the first-preference vote. The number of seats won by the parties were: Fianna Fáil 77, Fine Gael 54, Labour Party 17, Democratic Left 4, Progressive Democrats 4, Green Party 2, Sinn Féin 1, Socialist Party 1 and Others 6.
Following six by-elections, the amalgamation of DL with Labour and the movement of a couple of TDs from Fianna Fáil to Independent ranks, the state of the parties going into the election is: Fianna Fáil 73, Fine Gael 54, Labour 20 (excluding the Ceann Comhairle, Seamus Pattison), PDs 4, Green Party 2,Sinn Féin 1, Socialist Party 1 and Others 10. The Fianna Fáil/PD minority Coalition has 77 seats and relies on the support of Beverley Cooper-Flynn, Denis Foley, Liam Lawlor, as well as four Independents for its majority.
With three months to go to the calling of the election and without any knowledge of the impact of the campaign, the indications from this constituency-by-constituency analysis are: Fianna Fáil 73 seats, Fine Gael 50 seats, Labour 25 seats (including Seamus Pattison), Sinn Féin 4 seats, PDs 3 seats, Green Party 2 seats, Socialist Party 1 seat and Others 8 seats. If confirmed on polling day, there would be another hung Dail and difficult negotiations to form the next government.
Contrary to the national polls, the combinations of Fianna Fail/PDs and Fine Gael/Labour would be neck-and-neck. Fianna Fail and the PDs would hold 76 seats while Fine Gael and Labour would hold 75 seats. The support of another seven or eight TDs would be required to provide the government with a bare majority of 83.
Fianna Fáil, PDs and the Green Party would have 78 seats; Fine Gael, Labour and the Green Party would have 77 seats.
The indications are that Sinn Féin could win four seats - in Cavan-Monaghan, in Dublin South-Central, in Kerry North and Dublin South-West.
Local factors - like the popularity of a particular TD, geographical location or particular issues - will have a major bearing on the outcome of the election. Whether they can override satisfaction with leaders, national issues and a possible swing factor is a matter that will be tested in May.