How the tide turned against Howlin

On the face of it, it was hardly the most passionate campaign in political history, but the election of Labour's eighth party…

On the face of it, it was hardly the most passionate campaign in political history, but the election of Labour's eighth party leader is seen within the ranks as one of the most critical in its 85 years. With the Spring era over, the party's fate now lies in the success or failure of Mr Ruairi Quinn's efforts to breathe new life and ideas into its demoralised organisation.

The week-long campaign was a first for Labour - there was no attempt to heap odium on any side. People in the party cannot recall a campaign as dignified, says one source.

But its finish was unexpected in that Mr Quinn had such a comfortable victory, a result which must leave Mr Brendan Howlin's strategists bemused after experiencing a heady beginning to his campaign.

In spite of his ultimate shortfall of 10 votes, the Wexford TD appeared to get off to a roaring start when Mr Spring formally stepped down a week ago. Initial reports suggested that he had rapidly solidified the non-Dublin vote within Labour's parliamentary party and the general council - the governing body - which made up the 64-strong electoral college. This view persisted almost to the eve of polling.

READ MORE

From the start, the two candidates agreed - to preserve themselves and the party - that the campaign had to be untainted. They would have no campaign managers and would conduct the business themselves.

They embarked on an endless round of telephone calls. They split the voters into categories: those definitely for them; those definitely against; those leaning towards or away from them; those who did not know.

Mr Quinn's secretary of over 20 years, Ms Denise Rogers, worked day and night in his office. Supporters in the general council, like Mr Henry Haughton, entered the fray to make calls to colleagues, estimating the lie of the land.

Mr Howlin was assisted by colleagues like Mr Emmet Stagg. The party's organisation secretary, Mr Pat Magner, and his former programme manager and now Labour development officer, Ms Anne Byrne, also supported him.

The omens were bright for Mr Howlin as the campaign took off; he was getting a very positive response last weekend. The first hiccup came on Monday when an IMS/Irish Independent poll reported that a majority of the public believed Mr Quinn would be the best leader. In the eyes of Quinn strategists, this would bolster the "face on the poster factor" and would be of critical importance in the wooing of "don't knows".

However, the pendulum would swing a number of times before polling. Without telling Mr Howlin of his intentions, Mr Michael Ferris, of South Tipperary, became the first member of the parliamentary party to go public, declaring his intention to support his fellow non-Dublin deputy.

Within hours, Mr Stagg had followed suit. The Howlin camp was elated, predicting privately that other members of the parliamentary party would do likewise. In the end, four deputies and one senator declared openly for him.

Support appeared to be breaking down along urban-rural lines and both candidates were anxious to have one of each acting as nominator or seconder.

Meanwhile, Mr Quinn was desperately seeking a rural TD who would support his nomination. He travelled to Drogheda on Monday and asked the parliamentary party chairman, Mr Michael Bell, to help out. Mr Bell refused on the basis that he had already told both candidates that, because of his position, he would have to maintain a neutral stance.

When Mr Quinn failed to strike a rustic note, he settled for two Dublin-based TDs, Mr Tommy Broughan and Mr Derek McDowell. At the same time, Mr Howlin received a further shot in the arm when Labour veteran Mr Michael D. Higgins travelled to Dublin from Galway and signed his nomination papers. In what was interpreted as a signal that Mr Spring was also behind him, the South Kerry TD, Ms Breda MoynihanCronin, acted as seconder.

However, the tide began to turn in Mr Quinn's favour. On Tuesday, Mr Tadgh O'Donovan, of Fermoy, Co Cork, said he was backing the Dublin TD. The next day, Senator Kathleen O'Meara, of North Tipperary, supported Mr Quinn, an important development in that she was the first non-Dublin member of the parliamentary party to declare her support for him.

There was little, in essence, to separate the two men. They were united ideologically and shared a similar robust self-assurance. In spite of his comparative youth, Mr Howlin was perceived as the traditionalist, while Mr Quinn was the convert to Labour.

Mr Howlin's credentials were more typically Labourite than Mr Quinn's. His trade unionist father, John, was friend and campaign manager to the party's former leader, Mr Brendan Corish, and his background was not embellished with the kind of comforts associated with Mr Quinn's middle-class upbringing.

However, with the old left/right arguments in Labour defunct, these factors did not hold water. Mr Quinn had been around for 25 years and had enough ministerial experience. The voters wanted the one who could win Dail seats, reorganise the party, define it again and allow the members to be involved in decision-making.

How Mr Spring voted remains a mystery, with both camps still claiming that he probably went with them.

Up to the eve of polling, Mr Howlin was insisting he would win the battle. Mr Quinn maintained the same, with sources claiming support was running at 38 votes; 33 were needed for victory.

In the end, the deficiency of 10 votes in Thursday morning's ballot meant that Mr Howlin's support was softer than he thought.