CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK/Louth: Few things are certain in Louth - bar the election of Dermot Ahern of Fianna Fáil, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Reporter
For years, Fianna Fáil's Minister for Social, Community and Family Affairs, Dermot Ahern has carefully tended his electoral patch. In Election 2002, he will be elected on the first count, and with one of the State's biggest votes.
"The ministerial glow is over the constituency. He will get a huge vote," said one candidate in the four-seat constituency.
In 1997, Ahern was elected on the first count with 1.23 quotas. Everyone else, including his Fianna Fáil running mate, Seamus Kirk, Labour's Michael Bell, and Fine Gael's ever-colourful Brendan McGahon, struggled.
This time around, McGahon has retired, though he is active in the campaign of the Carlingford-based Fine Gael candidate, Terry Brennan; while Michael Bell is, yet again, said to be vulnerable. Logic dictates that Bell must lose if Fine Gael's lead hopeful, Senator Fergus O'Dowd, wins since Drogheda never elects two TDs.
However, the political geography has changed much in five years. The seemingly unstoppable spread of Dublin's commuter belt has meant that there are nearly 10,000 extra votes to be fought for.
Fianna Fáil is confident it will hold its two seats, though just 50 per cent of Ahern's transfers went to running mates in 1997. In Election 2002, there will be even more competition for them - particularly from Sinn Féin's Arthur Morgan. Ahern's transfers, however, should help to bring Seamus Kirk safely home.
A poll last week indicated Sinn Féin will get 15 per cent of the first preferences - almost double what Owen Hanratty managed five years ago.
Louth should be a prime marketplace for Sinn Féin. The Muirhevnamore local authority estate is not the only republican heartland, though Ahern's assiduous constituency work there has hindered it up to now.
Living in Omeath, just below the Border, Arthur Morgan, who has built up a considerable profile, is badly sited for transfers, particularly with local newspapers urging voters to go for "the local man".
In addition, the bitterness left by the IRA killing of Mr Tom Oliver in 1991 continues to reverberate. Last week, his still-grieving family demanded to know why Sinn Féin is not pushing for an inquiry into his death.
Nevertheless, Sinn Féin is quietly confident of pulling off a surprise. That same poll, if it can be believed, held dispiriting news for Fine Gael.
In 1997, it won 27 per cent of first preferences. This time, it may get little more than 17 per cent. Properly used, such a figure should still elect Senator O'Dowd.
However, his running mate, Terry Brennan will struggle. His transfers could prove more useful to Fianna Fáil's Seamus Kirk than to Senator O'Dowd.
The Drogheda-based outgoing Labour TD, Michael Bell, has been written off many times in the past to make predicting it this time a dangerous occupation.
Nevertheless, he faces a huge battle.
Some of the other candidates include Bernadette Martin of the Greens, and a clutter of Independents including Dr Mary Grehan, who won 2,400 votes when she ran under the Progressive Democrats' flag in 1997.
Prediction: FF 2, FG 1, Lab 1. No change