The employers' group IBEC has predicted a slight slowdown in the Irish economy next year on the back of global trends.
IBEC's latest Quarterly Economic Reviewsays growth in GNP this year at 4.8 per cent will be "considerably stronger" than the average of 2.7 per cent of the past three years.
However, it warns this does not imply a return to the Celtic Tiger growth rates of the previous decade and says that GNP growth should moderate to 4.5 per cent in 2005.
IBEC said: "There was quite a lot of uncertainty over developments in the next twelve months. Although major forecasting institutions like the IMF and the OECD remained bullish on a return to global recovery in the second half of this year, following a "soft patch" in the second quarter, many of the indicators for the third quarter of this year remained sluggish."
The body said that although Irish Exchequer finances will be "much healthier" at the end of the year than was forecast on Budget day because of some €1.6 billion of additional revenue, it had to be remembered that half of this revenue was of a "once-off" nature.
It said the new Minister for Finance, Mr Cowen, will therefore have to frame the next Budget in the light of a firm, but not exceptional, growth rate.
"He will have the resources to make up for the non-indexation of tax bands in the last two years, but his main emphasis needs to be a commitment to an efficiency drive in the delivery of modern and flexible public services," IBEC concluded.