World oil demand this winter in the northern hemisphere is set to contract sharply after the September attacks in the United States hit air travel and dampened expectations for a rebound in global economic growth, the International Energy Agency said today.
The IEA, in its monthly oil market report, said it had cut its world oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter of this year by 1.1 million barrels a day to 76.2 million bpd, a fall of 600,000 bpd on the same period in 2000.
The Paris-based agency revised lower its projection for demand in the first quarter next year by 900,000 bpd to 76.5 million bpd, a decline of 400,000 bpd on the first quarter 2001.
The IEA now sees world oil demand growth this year of just 120,000 bpd, revising down its forecast for 2001 by 400,000 bpd from last month's report.
It has cut its average forecast for next year by 600,000 bpd and says its sees growth of 600,000 bpd with demand reaching 76.6 million bpd.
Jet fuel demand accounts for the bulk of the reduction, it said.
The agency revised down its forecast for Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development jet fuel demand in 2002 by 450,000 bpd. It says it sees OECD jet demand falling on average by 180,000 this year and another 220,000 bpd next year.
Oil prices added to gains today due to possible curbs in output by OPEC producers and as the United States signalled intentions for a wider war against terrorism.
Talk of an OPEC output cut has been rife since Tuesday but OPEC powerhouse Saudi Arabia triggered a rally when it reduced supplies to its customers in Europe on Thursday.
Benchmark US light crude futures last stood at $23.72 a barrel by 0540 GMT, extending yesterday's 81-cent rally in the New York market by 38 cents.