The Provisional IRA has taken significant steps to run down its paramilitary capability and further committed itself to a political path, the Independent Monitoring Commission has reported.
The IRA had "disbanded 'military' structures, including General Headquarters departments responsible for procurement, engineering and training, and it has stood down volunteers and stopped allowances," the IMC said. The British and Irish governments' paramilitary watchdog further claimed that the organisation's "continuing inactivity" itself leads to further erosion of capability.
IMC member Lord [ John] Alderdice said: "It's hard to envisage how there could be any return to the kind of campaign we saw in the past." Reliable sources suggested privately the shift by the IRA is now "irreversible".
The IMC's 12th report, released yesterday in Belfast, said IRA leaders were actively continuing to instruct its members not to use physical force.
In a politically sensitive section of the findings the four commissioners state that the Provisional leadership "has maintained a firm stance against the involvement of members in criminality, although that does not mean that criminal activity by all members has stopped".
The IMC also reported that in the past six months there had been no IRA paramilitary activity, recruitment or training. There had been no shootings, two beatings were carried out without leadership sanction and robberies had been committed "for personal gain".
Citing the murder of IRA double agent Denis Donaldson in Donegal last April, the IMC reported it was not in a position to state who was responsible. Lord Alderdice added the IMC was confident no vital intelligence about the murder was being withheld from them.
The commissioners added, when all their findings were considered together, there was "convincing evidence of [ the IRA's] continuing commitment to a political path" and of "change management" within the organisation. They had uncovered "tension" within the membership but the leadership was sticking to its course and handling disagreements. There has been no "material movement" from the Provisional to dissident republican groups.
With unionist, government and SDLP demands for Sinn Féin to back the new policing dispensation uppermost as the parties prepare for intensive talks next week in Scotland, the IMC underscored its belief that a significant move on the question would be made.
"This is an important question not only in its own right but because it is illustrative of both the process of transition and of tensions within the organisation," the commissioners reported. "It remains our view that the leadership has accepted the need for engagement in policing and wishes to achieve it. The leadership has given public indications to this effect and efforts have been made to secure membership support." They accepted the shift to endorse policing "remains controversial for some in the movement".
The commissioners concluded the IRA "is following a political path and differences of view within the organisation will not divert the leadership from implementing it".
Referring to the Real IRA, the report concluded that its members remained "active and dangerous" and that they continue to seek to sustain their position "as a terrorist organisation". The Continuity IRA also remains an "active and dangerous threat" although not a very widespread one. The INLA was held not to be in a position to carry out a sustained campaign and seemed committed to a "no first-strike" policy.
Loyalist paramilitary groupings remained active in both violence and crime, the report said.
The Loyalist Volunteer Force was "laying low" after the ending of its feud with the UVF last autumn but remained "a deeply criminal organisation". The Ulster Defence Association, too, was guilty of violent paramilitary activity. However, the commissioners noted the leadership's efforts to "steer the organisation away from crime" which had met with "mixed success". The report blamed the Ulster Volunteer Force for two attempted murders in the six months since April and other shootings and assaults.
IMC members were asked if the IRA had now "gone away". Dick Kerr, one of the authors, said: "Maybe 'gone away' is not the way to describe this."