Northern Secretary Peter Hain is today primed to step up pressure on the DUP to share power with Sinn Féin, write Gerry Moriarty and Mark Hennessy. His efforts will be based on the latest Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) report which provides the strongest evidence to date of the IRA shunning criminality and violence.
The report, which will be published in Belfast today, points to a complete absence of IRA paramilitary or violent activity in the three-month period up to February.
The Irish Times has learned that the four-member IMC will state in its report: "We are not aware of current terrorist, paramilitary or violent activity sanctioned by the leadership."
It will also state: "We have had no indications in the last three months of training, engineering activity, recent recruitment or targeting for the purposes of attack."
The IMC concludes: "There has been substantial erosion in the IRA's capacity to return to a military campaign without a significant period of build-up, which in any event we do not believe that they have any intentions of doing."
One of the main focuses on the IRA in recent months relates to allegations of criminal activity. But the IMC says it is satisfied the organisation's leadership "continues to seek to stop criminal activity by their members and to prevent them from engaging in it".
Bolstered by the positive nature of the report, Mr Hain is today expected to spell out the consequences for the North's 108 Assembly members if they do not re-establish a Northern Executive by the November 24th deadline set by the British and Irish governments.
While the DUP has insisted it will not be "bounced" into entering a power-sharing Stormont government with Sinn Féin, Mr Hain is today due to step up his pressure on the North's politicians, and the DUP in particular, to strike a deal by November.
In the House of Commons, he is due to warn that there will be no "golden handshake" for Assembly members who will be made redundant if the latest political initiative by the British and Irish governments to restore devolution fails. Not only will they lose their jobs but there will be no generous payoffs, he is likely to insist.
It should be clear from Mr Hain's comments today that he believes the DUP now has little or no excuse not to share power with Sinn Féin.
During today's second reading in the Commons of the Northern Ireland Bill - the legislation required to restore the Assembly in mid-May with a November 24th deadline for full reinstatement of devolution - Mr Hain is expected to focus on the political opportunity this offers for the North's politicians.
But, Mr Hain is due to warn, if there is no agreement by the deadline, not only will all Assembly members lose their jobs, their pay and allowances, but they will receive no "generous redundancy or resettlement package".
Mr Hain is likely to repeat how failure will compound the "democratic deficit", in that direct rule will continue.
Unionist politicians are already well aware that there will be a greater role for Dublin if the initiative collapses.
The Northern Secretary is also expected to warn that if there is no prospect of a power-sharing agreement the North will lose a "whole political culture" and political class, many of whom for a generation and more have sought an opportunity to wield political power in the North.
DUP North Belfast MP Nigel Dodds yesterday accused the British government of trying to "spin and hype up" the IMC report.