The Provisional IRA is showing "no signs" of winding down despite a reduction in its involvement in violence and criminality, according to the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC).
The IMC's third report, which was published by the Irish and British governments today, notes that punishment attacks by the Provisionals had decreased.
It also said the organisation has not murdered anyone in the period between March and September that is covered by the report.
"Over the period covered by this report, so far as Northern Ireland is concerned, we saw no signs of the PIRA winding down its capability," the four-member IMC said. "It continued to recruit, though in small numbers, and to gather intelligence."
IMC report
The Provisionals also appeared to have suspended action against people in republican areas it believed were guilty of anti-social behaviour. The IRA was linked to a major robbery in Dunmurry on the outskirts of Belfast in May and to smuggling and other criminal activity.
However, the Provisionals were said to be no longer criminally active in the Republic.
On the other hand, loyalists such as Ulster Defence Association and Ulster Volunteer Force were showing an increasing capacity for violence, with continued involvement in murders, feuds and punishment attacks, the report said.
The IMC said the Ulster Volunteer Force remained "an active and violent organisation" that was linked to two of the four paramilitary murders since the end of February.
It was also involved in a feud with the Loyalist Volunteer Force and remained involved in organised crime, the IMC reported. The UVF was blamed for bomb attacks against nationalists and a series of violent racial attacks in Belfast, although these were not sanctioned by the organisation's leadership.
"We also note that the senior UVF members have restated their commitment to the loyalist ceasefire statement of October 1994," the IMC said. "Nevertheless, we conclude that the UVF remains a ruthless organisation retaining a capacity for more widespread violence and, as the feud with the LVF showed, if it judged the circumstances appropriate we believe that it would engage in it."
The UDA carried out a number of shootings and sectarian attacks, including one against three Catholic men in August. It was also linked with serious criminality and drug dealing.
The "Real IRA" was also regarded as a serious threat - albeit one with limited capabilities. It was blamed for a series of letter bomb attacks on Policing Board members and a shooting at a Derry police station in September.
The dissident republican group, which is split into two factions, is understood to be involved in smuggling and is trying to increase its bomb-making capacities, the IMC reported. "We conclude that RIRA remains a considerable threat," the commission said. "We believe it will continue to be active, even if its capabilities do not always match its aspirations."
The INLA and the Continuity IRA were also said to be highly-involved in crime and potentially dangerous. The CIRA in particular was understood to be seeking to increase its membership and weapons capability.
"Paramilitary violence in the form of murder, shootings and assaults has considerably reduced in the past six months but remains at a disturbingly high level," the report concluded. "The proportionate reduction is greater on the part of republican groups. Most violence is attributable to loyalist groups."
A spokeswoman for the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, confirmed he would be discussing the contents of the IMC report with British Prime Minister Mr Tony Blair on the margins of the EU meeting in Brussels today.
The report is the third produced by the IMC and the second dealing with paramilitary activity presented to the two governments.
Its members comprise former deputy director of the CIA Mr Richard Kerr, ex-Metropolitan Police anti-terrorist chief Mr John Grieve, retired Irish civil servant Mr Joe Brosnan and ex-Stormont Assembly Speaker Lord Alderdice.
The IMC was formed last year and was also given the task of monitoring how the Government is living up to its pledges to scale down security in Northern Ireland. The DUP insists the IRA must end all paramilitary and criminal activity and complete disarmament if Sinn Féin is to join them in a future Stormont power-sharing government. It has been widely touted that the IRA are preparing to disband to enter government.