Cyprus: The divided state will remain a problem, writes Michael Jansen in Burgenstock, Switzerland
The UN drive to find an agreed settlement for the 40-year-old Cyprus problem failed because the political disparity is too great between the contending parties, the Greek Cypriots and Turkey. Nine days of negotiations ended a few moments before midnight on Wednesday when the UN Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan, formally presented to the Greek and Turkish Cypriots, Greece and Turkey the final text of a 200-page Foundation Agreement for the proposed Swiss-style Cyprus federation.
Mr Annan characterised the plan as the best ever on offer, balanced and a "win-win" document for both sides. But few observers agree with his assessment because the Turkish camp openly celebrated when the revised text began circulating. Indeed the Turkish Premier, Mr Recep Tayyip Erdogan, warned the Turkish press to refrain triumphalism when the text was leaked to journalists. The Turkish side had good reason to celebrate.
A source close to the negotiations told The Irish Times that it submitted 11 suggestions on key issues and all were accepted, most of them at the expense of the Greek Cypriots. In a briefing after the closing ceremony, Mr Erdogan listed the gains of the Turkish side.
The most important was international recognition that "two different nations and two separate democracies" exist on Cyprus.
Turkey has been putting forward this demand for nearly half a century. Turkey was also given assurances that the principle of "bi-zonality" would not be infringed or diluted by granting political rights to Greek Cypriot refugees who are permitted to return to homes in the Turkish canton, the minority Turkish Cypriots would enjoy political equality with the majority Greek Cypriots, Turkey would continue as guarantor power, 68,000 mainland settler families would be permitted to remain and new settlers to take up residence on the island.
There is little doubt that the Turkish Cypriots, bolstered by the settlers, will vote "yes" in the referendum scheduled for April 24th.
Although the UN facilitator, Mr Alvaro de Soto, argued that a number of Greek Cypriot proposals for improving the functionality of a federation had been accepted, the source said that only "one fifth of these proposals" were incorporated into the plan. Those adopted were essentially "invisible" and not high-profile provisions saleable to Greek Cypriot voters.
The source said the opportunity presented by the Annan plan to solve the Cyprus problem has been lost because of the strong pressure exerted on Mr Annan by the US President, Mr George Bush, and his allies who seek to remove the obstacle of Cyprus to Turkey's EU accession.
Imbalance and lack of attractive provisions will make it all the more difficult for the two main Greek Cypriot political parties, the left-wing Akel and the right-wing Democratic Rally, which support a settlement, to convince sceptical constituents to cast their ballots for the plan in the referendum.
Another reason the Greek Cypriot side reject the plan is that it is seen as an imposed solution rather than one directly negotiated by Greek and Turkish Cypriots.
Burgenstock is uncomfortably close to Zurich (90 kilometres) where in 1959 Britain, the departing colonial power, Greece and Turkey, drew up the constitution for the 1960 Cyprus Republic. The arrangement never worked because Ankara undermined the communal arrangements and worked towards separation and partition, which it achieved in 1974 when it occupied the northern third of the island.
This time the UN is trying to impose its plan on the Cypriots. However, the situation has changed dramatically over the past 30 years.
The Greek Cypriots built a new economy, prospered and completed the requirements for membership in the EU, which they are set to join on May 1st. By contrast, the Turkish Cypriot north became an underdeveloped province of Turkey followed by mainland settlers, an area dominated by its army and a Turkish Cypriot political elite answerable to Ankara.
A majority of Turkish Cypriots now want the soldiers and settlers to leave and seeks reunification with the Greek Cypriots.
Greek Cypriots believe their membership in the EU will strengthen their hand vis-a-vis Turkey, which will need Cyprus's vote once it is ready for accession, and encourage the Turkish Cypriots to stay on the island.
This means that the Cyprus problem is bound to be on the world's agenda for some time yet. A Cypriot newspaper editor quipped, "Since Cyprus cannot be a world power, it has decided to be a world-class nuisance."