With at most a year and a half to go before polling day, the next general election is beginning to appear on the voters' horizon.
Over the last couple of months in particular, the public has been treated to a series of mini-dramas being played out at dozens of selection conventions around the country, as named candidates are identified, and begin to make themselves known on the ground.
Already we can see evidence of a sharpening of the electorate's focus on the election ahead by way of a significant drop in the proportion expressing no opinion as to which party or candidate they are likely to vote for (Table II). Voters' opinions are beginning to firm up, and will become progressively more clearly defined as each month goes by.
Today's is of course the first Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll conducted since the 2006 Budget, reactions to which will have to some degree shaped the views and opinions measured this week. First and foremost however, a review of the general economic climate is warranted.
The Government's Special Savings Investment Accounts (SSIAs) have now become a reality. Financial institutions have begun bombarding account holders with a myriad of possibilities as to how their money might best be spent or invested.
The likely impact of this cash bonanza on the nation's psyche should not be underestimated. In total, there are 1.1 million SSIA account holders in the country, with each of these set to realise on average a net €15,000. In many cases, this will equate to €30,000 per household - roughly equivalent to the average annual pre-tax industrial wage.
Even if most of this cash is immediately reinvested in savings, pensions, or property, it will feed into a growing feel-good factor over the next six to 18 months, which Fianna Fáil in particular can only benefit from.
At a macro level, the economic prospects are also very positive, with commentators forecasting 5 per cent growth or more for the year ahead. Indeed a Eurobarometer study conducted by TNS across all 25 EU states last autumn indicated that the extent of concern regarding the general economy was lowest among Irish adults, at just 4 per cent, compared to the EU average of 26 per cent.
It is within this context therefore that we see a significant increase in support for the Government in general, and Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fáil in particular. Support for Fianna Fáil has increased most dramatically in urban areas, and among those aged 35 years and over, ie those arguably under the greatest day-to-day financial pressure and with most to lose in the event of an economic downturn. At 37 per cent, party support is still significantly lower than its share of the vote at the May 2002 general election, but significantly higher than that garnered during the 2004 locals.
The Labour Party, and indeed Pat Rabbitte as leader, have also fared well in this survey. A review of long-term poll trends (Table III) indicates that today's showing at 16 per cent is the highest recorded for the party since May 2004, and notably stronger than its standing this time last year. Pat Rabbitte has recently seized upon the politically thorny issue of immigration control, suggesting that the introduction of a work permit system may now be warranted.
In tackling this topic Rabbitte is tapping into what is, along with healthcare, the most emotive issue in the collective mind of the Irish electorate, and one which all political candidates will face on the doorsteps come the general election. As is the case worldwide, the perceived threat from an incoming workforce is greatest among the less well-off - that very constituency Labour will want to strengthen its position among in advance of the election. No doubt that party will carry through on its leader's initial comments on the subject, and prepare a reasoned and balanced policy document as to how Ireland should best adapt to the realities of a growing multicultural society.
Between January and September 2005, Fine Gael had undoubtedly been making headway against the Government parties in relation to the general Opposition contention that taxpayers'