This most recent Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll was conducted on Friday and Saturday of last week, immediately following the debate between Bertie Ahern and Enda Kenny, writes Damian Loscher, Managing Director, TNS mrbi
It reveals a surge in support for Fianna Fáil, up five points to 41 per cent. The PDs are holding steady at 2 per cent. Combined, they attract 43 per cent support, resurrecting the possibility that the current Government could be returned.
The news for Fine Gael (down one point to 27 per cent) and Labour (down three points to 10 per cent) is disappointing. However, the hopes for an alternative government are still very much alive. Together, Fine Gael and Labour command 37 per cent of first-preference votes, lifting to 43 per cent if the Green Party is included. Now more than ever Fine Gael and Labour need to present a united front.
With 15 per cent of voters still undecided, the door remains open for Fine Gael to claw back the four points lost since campaigning began and for Labour to recover the three points dropped in this latest poll.
It would appear that the roller coaster ride which has been a feature of this election campaign is not over yet. More drama is promised in the run-up to election day and, in all likelihood, afterwards.
Did the leaders' debates last week trigger this latest shift in voting preferences? Certainly there has been much talk about the presidential style of the 2007 campaign. Without any real ideological or policy differences between the main parties, a focus on personalities was inevitable. For this reason, the debate between Ahern and Kenny was eagerly anticipated.
There can be no doubt that Ahern was the winner - when asked who won the debate, the Taoiseach came out on top for 72 per cent of voters expressing an opinion. His debate performance would also appear to have boosted his personal satisfaction rating, up four points to 58 per cent. As the face of the Fianna Fáil party, it would be difficult to imagine that his performance has not also helped the party's poll ratings: it can be no coincidence that every time Ahern takes centre stage, support for Fianna Fáil climbs.
Had Fianna Fáil's gain been at the expense of Fine Gael, we would not need to look beyond the main leaders' debate to explain why support for Fianna Fáil has jumped. However, Fine Gael has drifted only marginally lower, down one point to 27 per cent. Essentially, on the night of the debate, Enda Kenny performed as expected - confident, composed and enthusiastic - and his personal satisfaction rating reflects this, up one point to 48 per cent, another record high. Kenny won some battles even if he did not win the war.
To fully explain the latest rally in support for Fianna Fáil, we need to also consider a new dynamic which has entered the campaign, courtesy of Michael McDowell. His "left, hard left and leftovers" retort during the first of the leaders' debates may have changed the face of Irish politics for the next five years in much the same way that his 2002 election slogan "Single party government - no thanks!" has shaped the last five. Suddenly there is a real difference between the two alternatives. By focusing almost exclusively on public services, the alternative government parties may have been left exposed on the economy, a weakness which the PDs have sought to exploit.
Unfortunately for the PDs, McDowell's new strategy has not lifted the party's standing in the polls, which remains at 2 per cent nationally. That said, all the PDs need is a small increase to drag a number of PD candidates over the line in marginal constituencies.
If raising the spectre of a left-wing government has damaged the alternative, Labour not surprisingly has suffered the most. Support for Pat Rabbitte's party has fallen three points to 10 per cent in this latest poll. Even Rabbitte has not emerged unscathed; his personal satisfaction rating has softened, down one point to 49 per cent, despite outshining the other party leaders in the first debate.
This latest poll also shows a decline in support, albeit marginal, for both Sinn Féin (down one point to 9 per cent) and Gerry Adams (down two points to 49 per cent).
If there has been a move to the right, Sinn Féin can expect very little in the way of positive publicity. For Sinn Féin, the priority will be to leverage the work the party has been doing on the ground in disadvantaged communities by encouraging young people in these areas to come out and vote on polling day.
The Green Party looks set to improve on its 2002 general election performance, fuelled by a growing concern in environmental and transport issues. This latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll shows the Green Party with 6 per cent support, rising to 10 per cent in Dublin.
Trevor Sargent remains in the bottom half of the party leaders' satisfaction table (down three points to 39 per cent), just above McDowell (up two points to 36 per cent). Strong policies do not popular leaders make.
The Green Party has not ruled out going into government with any other party. Armed with policy objectives that are consumer-friendly and progressive, combined with a relatively palatable tax agenda, the Greens are the ideal partners in government. Indeed, the Greens have replaced Labour as the party likely to be in greatest demand to make up the numbers.
The proportion of the vote which will be given to Independent candidates is significantly lower in this election compared with any election in the past 20 years, measured at just 5 per cent in this latest poll. With this election balanced on a knife-edge, the importance and influence of Independents should not be underestimated.
At times like this, the 1992 Clinton campaign phrase, "It's the economy, stupid", could also be applied to explain the motivations of Irish voters, especially those who wait until nearer polling day to make up their minds. Fundamentally, do voters want a successful economy or a fair society (assuming both are mutually exclusive)? In this latest poll, we asked which party leader would be better at successfully managing the economy and which would be better at improving public services.
On the economic question, Ahern emerged the preferred winner by some considerable margin - 55 per cent in favour of Ahern compared with 25 per cent for Kenny. Even Labour voters stated they would feel more secure if Ahern was at the helm of the economy. On the question of who would be more likely to deliver improved public services, opinion was divided (40 per cent for Ahern, 37 per cent for Kenny), suggesting a win for Kenny if we consider that more Fianna Fáil than Fine Gael supporters were interviewed.
Voters were also asked to choose between Ahern and Kenny on a range of other economic and social issues. A consistent pattern emerged. Ahern is trusted to deliver on the public finances whereas Kenny is expected to deliver on public services. So why do personal satisfaction or party support ratings not mirror these findings? Perhaps, with no guarantee of continued prosperity, voters appear to be prioritising the economy.
With the election too close to call, the debate will now turn to coalition possibilities, of which there are many. Nonetheless, it is difficult to escape the conclusion that most combinations feature Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach. Could it be 10 years and counting or will the tide turn once again - Fianna Fáil/PD government, no thanks?