Independents crucial in New Hampshire

Independents will decide the outcome of the New Hampshire primary elections where voters go to the polls today to make their …

Independents will decide the outcome of the New Hampshire primary elections where voters go to the polls today to make their choice of party candidate for the presidential contest.

Those who are registered as Independent can vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary. More people in New Hampshire are registered as Independent (37 per cent) than Republican or Democrat, so all the candidates have been targeting these voters.

The Independents tend to be young, moderate and middleclass. They are mostly women.

Opinion polls show Vice-President Al Gore's lead over the former senator, Mr Bill Bradley, narrowing as the latter stepped up his attacks on what he called Mr Gore's "misrepresentations" of his policies. Mr Bradley also cited inconsistencies in Mr Gore's pro-choice stance, which may damage him with women.

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Mr Gore in turn has lashed out at Mr Bradley for what he calls "personal vilification". Mr Gore has also released a letter from senior Democrats in Congress appealing to Mr Bradley to tone down his attacks on the Vice-President because of the damage they could do in the presidential election, when the Republicans could exploit them.

The latest CNN/USA Today poll shows Mr Gore leading Mr Bradley by 51 per cent to 45 per cent, compared with an 18-point gap after Mr Gore's big win in the Iowa caucuses last week. However, about one-third of likely voters have told pollsters they have not yet made up their minds on how to vote.

On the Republican side, Senator John McCain of Arizona is poised to pull off a major victory by defeating the Republican front-runner for the party nomination, the governor of Texas, Mr George W. Bush. In national polls Mr Bush is well ahead of his rival but in New Hampshire Mr McCain is 10 points ahead in the CNN/USA Today poll.

Mr Bush easily won the Iowa caucuses last week, but Mr McCain did not campaign there. He concentrated on New Hampshire where his past military record as a prisoner-of-war in Vietnam where he was tortured has an appeal for veterans.

Mr Bush's parents, the former president, Mr George Bush, and Mrs Bush, joined their son on the campaign trail in recent days. However, Mr Bush is being squeezed between Mr McCain, with his more moderate views on tax cuts and abortion on one side, and the three conservative Christian right candidates, Mr Steve Forbes, Mr Alan Keyes and Mr Gary Bauer, on the other.

Mr Forbes, the billionaire magazine publisher, won 30 per cent of the Republican vote in Iowa but is not making the same impression in New Hampshire. However, he and his conservative colleagues may weaken Mr Bush, who is depending on this sector to beat Mr McCain.

There was some light relief on the campaign trail when Republican candidates were challenged to flip pancakes for the "golden spatula" award. Mr Bush won with a perfect 4ft flip, but one of his rivals, Mr Gary Bauer, overflipped and fell off the stage. He reappeared unhurt, saying he was "a survivor".