India overtakes China as Asia's fastest growing economy

India notched up 10.4 per cent economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2003 as farm and manufacturing output soared, taking …

India notched up 10.4 per cent economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2003 as farm and manufacturing output soared, taking it past China as Asia's fastest-growing economy.

Heavy rains boosted the key agricultural sector, which makes up nearly a quarter of the Indian economy. Analysts said the double-digit result exceeded expectations, although revisions to past numbers played a part in lifting the growth rate.

Gross domestic product accelerated from the 8.4 per cent growth it recorded in the year to the July-September quarter.

The news is expected to give the ruling coalition, which is expected to ride back to power on the back of an economic boom, some more cheer ahead of elections scheduled for April and May.

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"The double-digit GDP growth is unprecedented and is mainly on account of an extremely robust farm sector performance," said Mr Indranil Pan, chief economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank.

India's financial year runs from April to March. The country does not issue seasonally adjusted data, so growth between successive quarters cannot be measured.

India's $560-billion economy, the world's 11th largest, has been on a roll during the past year, thanks to the best monsoon in a decade.

Foreign funds have poured in significant amounts of money because of the economic upturn, pushing the Bombay stock market index up by more than 70 per cent in 2003.

Wednesday's figures showed the Indian economy had beaten China's 9.9 per cent growth in the year to the October-December quarter.

Indian farm sector output was 16.9 per cent higher in October-December than a year earlier. Manufacturing output was 7.4 per cent higher.

But analysts said the latest figures flattered India's performance, because output levels of a year earlier, especially for the farm sector, had been revised downwards.

October-December 2002 GDP is now seen just two per cent higher than a year earlier, compared with the statistics office's previous estimate of 2.3 per cent .

The farm sector in that period is now estimated as 9.8 per cent lower than a year before. The previous estimated decline was 7.6 per cent .

The Indian economy, which embraced economic reforms more than a decade ago, still largely depends on domestic demand to push growth, as exports contribute only about 10 per cent to GDP.

But global demand is key for the services sector, which was 9.0 per cent higher in the October-December quarter. The sector, which accounts for nearly 50 per cent of India's GDP, has also gathered pace, taking advantage of large outsourcing orders from developed countries such as United States and Britain.