Indonesia has agreed in principle, for the first time, to a United Nations ballot in East Timor, the former Portuguese colony which it invaded in 1975 and annexed in 1976.
This opens up the possibility of a UN civilian and police force being sent to the territory to supervise elections and the subsequent withdrawal of Indonesian troops, according to UN diplomats.
Australia, as East Timor's nearest neighbour, has been asked by Portugal to play a leading role in any UN mission, and the UN may also ask for Irish involvement, given Dublin's interest in East Timor, Irish officials said.
The Australian Foreign Minister, Mr Downer, last week discussed with European govern ments the possibility of an international force to maintain security in East Timor.
Events have been moving fast since President B.J. Habibie of Indonesia unexpectedly announced on January 27th that he would grant East Timor independence if it rejected a form of autonomy offered by Jakarta.
On Sunday, the Indonesian Foreign Minister, Mr Ali Alatas, and his Portuguese counterpart, Mr Jaime Gama, met at the UN in New York to begin charting a course which could lead to Indonesia's withdrawal from the territory by the end of the year. Both expressed optimism about future agreement.
Mr Alatas has always rejected a referendum on the future of East Timor, but said he "agreed in principle" on consultations with the Timorese that could include some type of vote.
Reuters yesterday quoted officials in the talks as saying the two sides had already reached an informal understanding on the way ahead in the following terms.
Some time after April, the UN would organise a vote in East Timor which would allow residents to accept or reject a wide-ranging autonomy package that would leave East Timor as part of Indonesia. The vote would take place before Jakarta's new parliament is elected in August.
If the Timorese rejected this option, which is almost certain in a properly supervised ballot, Indonesia would ask the parliament to rescind its annexation of the territory it invaded in 1975.
Australia was the only country to recognise the annexation of East Timor by Jakarta, but the UN has continued to regard Portugal as the administrator of the territory.
Under the plan now being discussed, Portugal would then be asked to resume authority over the territory and, over a period of months, Indonesia would withdraw its administration, officials said. This would be assisted by a UN mission and police force which would have to be at least several hundred strong, given the difficulty of the terrain in the tropical island.
The 700,000 Timorese could then vote on their future status, elect a constituent assembly and map out a constitution if they chose independence. Mr Alatas forecast that the process could begin in eight weeks.
"We hope that by April, at the latest, we can have a model that we can show to the Indonesian people and of course to the East Timorese," he said, adding that if the autonomy plan was rejected, East Timor would revert to its pre-1976 status as "a non-self-governing territory with Portugal as its [administrator] and still within the fold of the United Nations". Mr Gama told yesterday's Sydney Morning Herald: "What we are pushing for is a UN mandate, an interim UN mission with civilian and police components. Such a mission obviously needs a multinational participation. For our part, Portugal is happy to contribute. We would see it as a positive factor if Australia would join."
Many Australians feel they owe a debt to East Timor, whose people fought side by side with Australian troops against the Japanese, only to be left to the mercy of the Japanese as Australia withdrew. They were then betrayed by their former allies after the annexation which Canberra "legitimised".
Recently, Australia changed its policy on East Timor and is throwing its weight behind the UN-brokered initiative.
Mr Gama said there was broad agreement on a "vote organised by the United Nations in the territory" and that he had asked the UN Secretary-General, Mr Kofi Annan, to organise a UN mission in East Timor as soon as possible.
Indonesia and Portugal disagreed yesterday in New York on a consultative mechanism. Speaking at a news conference after talks at the UN, the Indonesian Foreign Minister, Mr Ali Alatas, and his Portuguese counterpart, Mr Jaime Gama, also disagreed on the need for a UN presence in the former Portuguese territory.