Indonesia's promise on Timor is deeply suspect

When he arrived in Dili on Saturday the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Andrews, found himself slap in the middle of what practically…

When he arrived in Dili on Saturday the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Andrews, found himself slap in the middle of what practically amounted to a coup by pro-Indonesian forces.

On that day, undisciplined paramilitary thugs armed with swords, knives and guns were unleashed upon pro-independence elements of the population of the East Timor capital, with the full support of the administration and the Indonesian army. Jakarta has since portrayed the bloody events as a conflict between two sides.

"Fighting between the pro-integration and pro-independence groups has escalated since the government announced it will give independence to the territory if the people of East Timor reject the autonomy package," said the In- donesian Observer yesterday.

The truth is that there is little or no fighting going on in East Timor. Violence is coming almost exclusively from the pro-integration militias which are committing atrocity after atrocity. They killed an estimated 12 people execution-style in the house of the independence leader Mr Manuel Carrascalao, as the governor, Mr Arbilio Soares, was telling Mr Andrews in his home nearby that he would fight for the partition of East Timor if autonomy were rejected.

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For two days they careered round town in trucks picking out houses and shooting them up. Eighteen deaths have been confirmed. Against that there was a volley of arrows from the inhabitants of the suburb of Becora as they came under attack by an armed mob, and the murder of a brother of pro-integration figure, Mr Lopez da Cruz, outside town on Friday.

The "coup" was completed on Monday when several hundred paramilitaries, including the longhaired leader of the feared "Thorn" outfit, Mr Eurico Gutteres, were inducted into a "voluntary civilian security force" by Dili's regent, Mr Domingos Soares, in the grounds of the governor's offices and assigned to "police" 26 sub-districts of Dili.

These facts on the ground contrast sharply with the reassuring words from Jakarta. "We have evidence that TNI [National Defence Force] has acted firmly," said the Indonesian Foreign Minister, Mr Ali Alatas. "Police . . . were powerless until after reinforcements of more troops came."

Those of us in Dili in the last four days saw no evidence of troops interfering in any way with the militias. Police arrested a mere five militia members but have ceded Dili to the irregulars, allowing them to continue occupying Mr Carrascalao's house, and helpfully blocking off the street with barbed wire to all except paramilitary forces.

The Indonesian military leader, Gen Wiranto, flew to East Timor yesterday, raising some hopes that he would disarm the militias. He said in Jakarta on Monday, however, that his troops could not have prevented the recent killings because they were "caught off guard". This was an astonishing admission after a massacre of 32 people at Liquica by pro-integration forces two weeks earlier and the well-announced plans for the militia rally in Dili on Saturday which launched the killing spree.

The Liquica massacre promoted the imprisoned independence leader Mr Xanana Gusmao to make a call for arms in the interests of self-defence. But even if it had been taken up, the forces in the Falintil (armed liberation movement) are believed to have only a few hundred rifles and less than 1,000 active members.

The result of the "coup" has been the complete intimidation of the pro-independence movement in the run-up to the unveiling of an autonomy package for the former Portuguese colony. This was promised on January 27th when President B.J. Habibie of Indonesia reversed 23 years of opposition to independence and said he would let the province go if the 800,000 East Timorese rejected an offer of extra autonomy. Indonesia invaded East Timor in 1975 and annexed it the following year, an act recognised only by the Australian government. Mr Alatas and his Portuguese counterpart, Mr Jaime Gama, will meet the UN Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan, in New York tomorrow to negotiate the terms to be put to the vote in East Timor in July, following which election monitors from the EU, Australia, Japan and the Philippines will be invited under UN auspices to verify the ballot.

In return, Indonesia expects Portugal to drop East Timor from the UN agenda. The question is whether a fair poll can take place in the current circumstances. The Nobel laureate Bishop Carlos Belo, whose home in Dili is under army protection, thinks not. No one doubts that the majority of East Timorese want independence, but the pro-independence section of the population is leaderless, and its most prominent and talented figures in exile, imprisoned or in hiding.

Yesterday I travelled around town with moderate student leader Mr Antero da Silva in a taxi. He fears for his life, and cannot use his motorbike in case the militias recognise him and kill him. At village level no one dares organise independence gatherings.

Pro-integration rallies, on the other hand, are stacked with government workers and villagers ordered to attend.

Mr Andrews's courageous visit to East Timor and his subsequent forceful expressions of concern to President Habibie, Mr Alatas and Gen Wiranto - an unprecedented injection of Irish diplomacy into Indonesia due in no small part to the influence of Mr Tom Hyland of the East Timor Ireland Solidarity Campaign, which is highly respected in Iveagh House - could not have been better timed.

The courteous hearing they afforded Mr Andrews as an EU foreign minister contrasts with the occasion in 1994 when Mr Alatas accused Mr Dick Spring of an act "tantamount to a declaration of war" for criticising Jakarta over East Timor in The Irish Times. It also went some way to raising morale in Dili and adds to international pressure on Jakarta, which needs western support for its crisis-ridden economy.

Regional leaders are piling on the pressure. The Prime Minister of Australia, Mr John Howard, which owes a huge moral debt to the East Timorese, is meeting Mr Habibie on April 27th and is threatening to end Canberra's recognition of East Timor as part of Indonesia.

But more than diplomacy and good will is needed. Unless the militias are stood down, independence groups allowed to organise politically alongside their opponents and a sizeable UN presence injected, the referendum in July may be little more than an exercise to consolidate continued Indonesian rule.

Why would a village risk voting for independence when it might mean a massacre later? And as long as Governor Soares remains in charge, with his threat of partition, Jakarta's promise of eventual independence remains deeply suspect.