Republican drums, no less than loyalist ones, in Northern Ireland tend to be elaborately decorated. One of the bandsmen at the hunger strike commemoration in Belfast yesterday carried a large drum with the image of a policeman wearing an Orange sash printed on it, with the slogan "Disband the RUC". But he had been beating the drum for so long that the policeman's image was now fading badly.
It could have been a metaphor for the current political situation. The RUC is about to be revamped as the Police Service of Northern Ireland. There was no official comment from the Northern Ireland Office on suggestions that the old title may be retained in some form, as a concession to unionists. Sinn Fein will object and Dublin's view is that "you have got to have a police force that can go anywhere in the North and be given a cup of tea". The worst option would be a "Londonderry/Derry" result, although it is hard to see how this could emerge from naming the force "The Police Service of Northern Ireland (incorporating the Royal Ulster Constabulary)".
Gerry Adams, who was the main speaker at the Dunville Park rally, was clearly pleased at the turnout which was higher than previous years. The crowd of an estimated 10,000 was a useful vote of confidence in the Sinn Fein leadership at this delicate time. These were the dispossessed from Belfast's nationalist ghettos who have supported the Provisionals through thick and thin, whether Mr Adams was a political pariah or an honoured guest at the White House. Their continued backing will be crucial.
Mr Adams acknowledged in his speech that some members of the audience might be concerned at the content of the latest IRA statement, allowing third-party access to weapons dumps. But most observers believed neither he nor the rest of the republican leadership would have contemplated such a move if there was any prospect of serious dissent.
The Provisionals are famous, not to say notorious, for keeping in contact with what they call their "base" and ensuring no gap develops. No doubt questions are being asked in places like South Armagh and Tyrone, but if there was any danger of a split the IRA would never have taken this latest initiative.
Suggestions of a possible mutiny inside the movement are therefore highly implausible. In terms of republican history, the IRA has taken a unique initiative. Whatever about Mr Martti Ahtisaari, the notion of Mr Cyril Ramaphosa viewing arms dumps is unlikely to discommode republicans, given the very close relationship between Sinn Fein and the African National Congress over many years.
There have now been so many IRA statements that some enterprising publisher may bring out the Collected Works of P. O'Neill. The current statement is the most dramatic since the original ceasefire declaration of 1994 and has delighted senior negotiators in the peace process.
If the statement could be paraphrased in a single sentence, it would be: "Provided the institutions are restored and the political process functions successfully, the IRA will refrain from using its weapons and will permit the two named individuals to confirm on a regular basis that the guns are silent."
Despite demands from unionists and others, P. O'Neill has not declared that the "war" is over, nor has he given guarantees that the dumps are sealed and the guns will never be used again. The IRA still remains in control of its weapons and, in theory at least, could use them again if the peace process fell apart.
The current initiative was foreshadowed as long ago as January, 1996, when Sinn Fein told the International Body on Decommissioning, chaired by Senator George Mitchell, that "the disposal of arms by those in possession of them is a method which may find acceptance".
In language reminiscent of the latest IRA statement, the 1996 submission continued: "The entire issue of arms will need to be dealt with in a way which imbues and maintains public and political confidence. An independent third party could prove to be of assistance here. This would, of course, have to be agreed by those in possession of weapons. Public safety considerations must be high on the agenda of any process. Adequate safeguards against misappropriation of arms by others is clearly an important matter." The document also stressed the need for demilitarisation of the British presence and significant moves on this are expected in due course.
It will be interesting to see whether the IRA's gesture leads to demands for the appointment of scrutineers to examine loyalist arms dumps. Given the allegations of collusion between loyalists and the security forces over the years, reports from these inspections could be very revealing.
The ball is now at the unionists' feet. Mr Trimble is once again fighting for his political life. Has he got the passion and commitment to win over the UUC or will he allow the nay sayers to have their way? Instead of decommissioning on May 22nd, the unionists are being offered the prospect of republicans back in government. But Mr Trimble can argue with some conviction that the approach suggested by the two governments is the best way of ensuring that the guns are never used again: decommissioning is dead, but the guns are on the shelf.
The events of last week are a particular triumph for the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen. The resolution of the decommissioning issue, once and for all, emerged from the rapport between himself and Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness. Growing awareness of Mr Cowen's pivotal role probably inspired the malicious leak of an internal British government memo depicting the Minister as a republican hardliner.
Clearly his enemies did not realise how active he was in trying to move the process forward. But far from being a republican footstool, informed sources report that Mr Cowen engaged in "some of the toughest discussions" with Sinn Fein. "He told them what was required." The republicans do not like sweet talk and flattery: straight talking is best and Mr Cowen is the all-Ireland champion in this respect.
There have been some indications that the worst is over for Mr Trimble in unionist circles. He had a cordial and relaxed meeting at Stormont last Tuesday with some 200 members of his party, most of whom also belong to the Orange Order. The leader clarified his views on the link between the party and the order and answered questions from the floor. The encounter lasted about two hours and Mr Trimble's guests reportedly left in a contented frame of mind.
In addition, the open support Mr Trimble received at Hillsborough from his unpredictable deputy, Mr John Taylor, was extremely important. The Strangford MP is said to control a critical 7 to 8 per cent of the votes at the UUC.
One of the major questions on both republican and unionist minds at the moment is as follows: what will the two governments do if the UUC fails to endorse the Hillsborough package? The logic of events suggests that if the unionists choose to sideline themselves, London and Dublin will move ahead without them. Enter "Anglo-Irish agreement mark two".
If Northern nationalists are not allowed a share in government Dublin's role may have to change from oversight to joint administration. Unionism is therefore caught in a cleft stick: go into government with the republican movement or face the prospect of joint sovereignty with the Republic.