GERMANY:Germany will attempt to revive the EU constitution next year, reports Jamie Smyth, European Correspondent
After 18 months of quiet reflection on the future of the European project, the cafes in Brussels are beginning to buzz again with talk of institution building.
The German government may publicly be downplaying expectations of what it can achieve during its six-month tenure as holder of the EU presidency from January, but the debate on the EU constitution is moving centre stage again.
Germany's ambassador to the EU, Wilhelm Schönfelder, said this month that member states had until December 2007 to resolve the institutional debate if a treaty was to come into force by mid-2009. While admitting he didn't know what Germany could deliver over the next six months, he warned that if Berlin did not succeed in its goal to revive the treaty the "thing will be dead" and the EU would be in a "very deep crisis".
Berlin is a staunch supporter of the constitution, which proponents maintain seeks to streamline decision-making within the enlarged EU.
Under its presidency, Angela Merkel will shortly appoint two officials - one from the chancellery and one from the foreign ministry- to sound out member states' opinions over the next three months. In March EU leaders will meet in the German capital to sign a Berlin Declaration to mark the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, an occasion which is intended to provide momentum to the treaty talks.
And in June Berlin will draw up a report with a detailed timetable toward getting a deal under the Portuguese presidency and ideas on the substance of a new treaty.
Merkel's task is complicated by the divergent views among states on how much of the draft constitutional treaty should be saved, and also by the French elections in late May. Paris and the Hague have consistently argued since their referendum defeats on the constitution in 2005 that the treaty cannot simply be renamed, repackaged and put to voters again in a new referendum.
Instead, French presidential candidate Nicolas Sarkozy is arguing for a "mini treaty" that strips out large parts of the constitution - such as the codification of human rights throughout the EU - but retains those articles dealing with the institutional make-up of the EU and how decisions are taken.
But the 16 member states that have already ratified the constitution, and supporters of the text such as the Irish Government, argue it is undemocratic to ignore the views of the majority.
So while Bertie Ahern told the European Parliament last month amendments to the text should be made to meet French and Dutch concerns, he and many other pro-constitution leaders across Europe will be hoping to keep them to a minimum.
Ignoring any debate on institution building in 2006, the European Commission under José Manuel Barroso has spent much of the year focused on pragmatic policies designed to boost popular support for Europe. Proposals to cut mobile phone roaming charges, tackle immigration and create a fund to help workers who lose their jobs through globalisation are aimed at winning over a sceptical European public, which plunged Brussels into crisis in May and June 2005 by rejecting the EU constitution.
The EU executive has also recovered from its terrible start, when it was forced to back down over the appointment of Italian Rocco Buttiglione, by steering complex controversial legislation such as Reach and the Services directive successfully into law.
Barroso's focus on pragmatic politics is often criticised by the Brussels elite as evidence of "lack of vision", however he is keenly aware that any redrafted institutional treaty will require public support for ratification.
With Bulgaria and Romania's accession bringing the EU to 27 members, and anti-EU rhetoric common in British and Polish politics, achieving unanimous approval for a treaty will be a challenge.
One idea floated by Barroso earlier this year is to link the institutional debate with a scheduled EU budget review in 2008 to promote some sort of "big bang" agreement.
Reform of the common agricultural policy is the carrot that Barroso believes could avoid a damaging rift with Britain over a new treaty. Reforming CAP could tempt the likely future British leader Gordon Brown to avoid a referendum in Britain, which most observers believe would be defeated.
Forecasts for strong economic growth in Europe in 2007 should provide a healthy background for the institutional debate in the coming year. But on the economic front Europe's trade relations with the US will be a source of concern for EU politicians, due to the rise in protectionism that has resulted from the Democrats regaining control of the Congress.
The US has already signalled it will not meet EU demands on an open skies deal - a source of concern for Aer Lingus - and EU officials believe the prospect of success in the Doha world trade talks is close to nil before President Bush loses his mandate for negotiation supplied by the Congress up until mid-2007.
This will lead Europe to pursue bilateral trade deals with states in the absence of a multilateral agreement.
Europe's relations with the US have improved considerably with the assumption to power of Angela Merkel, who has sought to build up ties with Washington. This improvement will be tested when EU and US officials meet to renegotiate a deal on using EU citizens' airline passenger records to fight terrorism.
The EU wants better safeguards on how security agencies use the data while the US wants to expand the use of the data and store it for 40 years to profile potential terrorists.
But it is the EU's relationship with Russia that will focus minds in 2007 with sensitive energy and trade matters high on the agenda. Russian president Vladimir Putin gave no quarter in his talks with EU leaders over energy security during 2006.
The EU wants Russia to open its gas and oil pipelines to foreign investment in an attempt to loosen the Kremlin's influence over energy supplies to Europe. Putin has balked at the request and EU attempts to address the issue through a comprehensive new partnership treaty with Russia have been vetoed by Poland.
Warsaw is unhappy with Moscow for banning its meat imports while European concerns over human rights abuses in Russia have been heightened by the assassinations of journalists and key opponents of Putin.
With the EU dependent on Russia for a third of its energy, the development of this difficult relationship is key to Europe's security.