There will be intense battles for the final seats in all four European constituencies in the last week of the election campaign, with the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll showing the final outcomes impossible to predict. Fianna Fáil seems unlikely to retain its six Parliament seats, while Fine Gael could pull off a spectacular result in the East constituency, winning two out of three seats, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
In Dublin, the lead of the Lord Mayor, Mr Royston Brady, over his Fianna Fáil running mate, Mr Eoin Ryan, has shrunk, while Labour's Ms Ivana Bacik appears close to catching her running mate, the sitting MEP, Mr Proinsias De Rossa.
The independent Ms Marian Harkin may take the seat of Dana Rosemary Scallon in North West, while in South the disability rights campaigner, Ms Kathy Sinnott, has strengthened her challenge for the seat of Fianna Fáil's Mr Gerard Collins.
Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are on course for substantial local government seat losses, with Sinn Féin set for major gains. Labour may also make significant advances.
The opinion poll was conducted among a national quota sample of 2,000 voters throughout the State last Tuesday and Wednesday.
Some 500 voters were interviewed in each of the four European constituencies. They were presented with a sample ballot paper for the European elections.
In the Dublin European constituency, Fine Gael's Mr Gay Mitchell is on 24 per cent, up five points since the last Irish Times/TNS/mrbi poll taken earlier in the campaign on May 18th and May 19th, and is set to be elected on the first count.
The lead enjoyed by Mr Brady over his running mate, Mr Ryan, has been cut from five to two points, and it is impossible to say which will reach the quota first.
Similarly, the gap between Labour's Mr De Rossa and Ms Bacik has narrowed from 14/8 to 12/10.
Sinn Féin's Ms Mary Lou McDonald is up one point to 12 per cent, compared to 8 per cent for Ms Patricia McKenna of the Green Party. Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour are, therefore, almost certain to win a seat each.
With Ms McKenna apparently benefiting much more from transfers than Ms McDonald, the final seat will be between these two, with Fianna Fáil and Labour's second candidates not ruled out of contention.
In East, Fianna Fáil's Mr Liam Aylward is set to top the poll on 26 per cent and may be elected on the first count. Fine Gael's vote is evenly split between Ms Avril Doyle (17 per cent) and Ms Mairead McGuinness (16 per cent), and Ms McGuinness appears to be attracting more vote transfers.
It is possible that the two Fine Gael candidates could hold off Labour's Mr Peter Cassells, who has dropped two points to 12 per cent, to take two seats out of three.
In South, Fianna Fáil's Mr Brian Crowley is set to top the poll on 32 per cent, up one in a fortnight. Fine Gael's Mr Simon Coveney is on 23 per cent, down three points but almost certain to be elected comfortably. However, Fianna Fáil's Mr Collins has dropped three points to 14 per cent, while independent Ms Sinnott has seen a surge of six points to 15 per cent.
Mr Crowley's substantial surplus will benefit Mr Collins, although transfers from lower-placed candidates, including Labour and Sinn Féin, will benefit Ms Sinnott, making the final seat impossible to predict.
In North West, Fianna Fáil's Dr Jim McDaid (18 per cent) has drawn level with and possibly overtaken his running mate, Mr Seán Ó Neachtain, (17 per cent), reversing the 20/16 advantage to Mr Ó Neachtain in the last poll. One of the Fianna Fáil candidates will take a seat.
Independent Ms Marian Harkin, on 16 per cent, is set to take another seat, benefiting from the elimination of Dana Rosemary Scallon, who is on 10 per cent. Fine Gael's Mr Jim Higgins, on 16 per cent, would be left to fight off the challenge of the second Fianna Fáil candidate for the final seat.
Sinn Féin's Mr Pearse Doherty is polling very well on 15 per cent, but seems unlikely to attract sufficient transfers to put him in contention.
In relation to the local government elections, the state of the parties is: Fianna Fáil 32 per cent, unchanged since the last Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll published a fortnight ago; Fine Gael 22 per cent, down two points; Labour 15 per cent, down one; Sinn Féin 11 per cent, up one; Green Party 4 per cent, unchanged; Progressive Democrats 3 per cent, down one; others 13 per cent, up two.
In a question on how people would vote in a general election, the state of the parties is: Fianna Fáil 33 per cent, down two on the poll taken last month; Fine Gael 24 per cent, up one; Labour 15 per cent, down one; Sinn Féin 11 per cent, up one; Green Party 4 per cent, unchanged; PDs 4 per cent, up one; others 9 per cent, up one.