US: Not since the beginning of President George Bush's drive towards confrontation with Iraq last September has the prospect of international support for his administration looked so bleak.
The vote by the parliament in Turkey - a NATO ally - to deny America bases for an attack on Iraq, despite a multi-billion-dollar aid offer, has dealt a serious blow to war planning and to the perception in Washington that nations could be persuaded, cajoled or bought off to join a US-led coalition.
The decision of the Iraqi president, Saddam Hussein, to begin destroying his stock of al-Samoud 2 missiles and turn up evidence of the disposal of chemical weapons has also strengthened the case at the UN that inspections are working and that they should be given more time.
The US can only be sure of the votes of four of the 15 Security Council members for a resolution which could trigger war against Iraq - perhaps as early as March 17th, St Patrick's Day.
Mr Bush's spokesman, Ari Fleischer, facing sceptical questions from the White House press corps, called the latest disarmament moves by the Iraqi president the "mother of all deceptions", adding: "Iraq is not co-operating. Despite whatever limited head-fakes Iraq has engaged in, they continue to fundamentally not disarm."
Mr Fleischer, who said some weeks ago that the destruction of the al-Samoud missiles would be a test of Iraq's willingless to disarm, repeated Mr Bush's contention that the missiles were only the tip of an iceberg.
"Why did Iraq not destroy the missiles in November when told to?" he asked. (The missiles were listed in the Iraqi weapons declaration of December 7th and not judged to be in breach of UN requirements until examined by arms experts in mid-February, following which the chief weapons inspector, Dr Hans Blix, ordered them to be destroyed).
Iraq was taking these actions only when troops were massing on its border, Mr Fleischer went on. They were "stretching this out to avoid pressure from the world" while at the same time keeping their weapons of mass drestruction to themselves. "The fact that he may have destroyed some 16 missiles has nothing to do with the \ anthrax, the botulin and the VX." Saddam was in a "Catch 22" situation, destroying weapons he said he never had.
The White House admitted that the vote in Turkey had taken the administration by surprise, though Mr Fleischer said there were other ways to accomplish military objectives and military success. "The vote was a surprise, the outcome was a surprise, to Turkish officials as well as to American officials," he said. "Clearly, if the president decides to authorise force, there are preferable routes, but those are not the only routes." Both countries were reviewing their options, but the president had every confidence that his other options would be "militarily successful".
On Saturday, Turkey's MPs defeated a government motion to allow 62,000 US troops to use the country as a springboard for a possible attack against Iraq.
At the UN, the Security Council is expected to decide today to set aside Friday for a debate on Dr Blix's latest report on disarmament. A vote will not however take place until next week, according to US ambassador John Negroponte. Other diplomatic sources said that it could come on Wednesday March 12th.
If President Bush decides to order military action after the vote, another few days would probably be needed to allow the UN weapons inspectors to pack up and leave Iraq. Many analysts believe, however, that the Turkish decision has set back the date for war to the end of the month.
The French case for continued inspections has received a strong boost from the Iraqi destruction of missiles and other disarmament steps. Baghdad has said that it will deliver a letter to the UN in a week explaining how it has got rid of anthrax and about 1½ tonnes of the deadly VX nerve agent. Meanwhile, four Iraqi scientists have given private interviews to the arms inspectors after initially refusing to do so
Diplomats said that the outcome of the vote on a new resolution - proposed by the US, Britain and Spain and declaring that Iraq has missed a final chance to disarm - was being decided in world capitals, where the US and the UK were lobbying member-governments.
French and Russian opposition to the US motion has not diminished. In recent days Russia has lobbied Bulgaria and Pakistan to vote against the resolution, countering the assumption in Washington that, in the end, Moscow could be persuaded not to oppose the US.
Across the US, many students in colleges and universities are expected to stage a strike tomorrow against war.
Mrs Madeleine Albright, the former US Secretary of State, urged President Bush yesterday to delay attacking Iraq, saying that current pressure was forcing Baghdad to disarm.