A RISE in births since 1995 will have serious implications for future education planning, which has been based on incorrect Government projections for school enrolments, according to the general secretary of the Irish National Teachers' Organisation, Senator Joe O'Toole.
Unpublished figures for births in the Republic during the final three months of last year show the highest fourth quarter figures since 1987, said Senator O'Toole, and the trend is continuing this year.
The number of births in 1996 - 50,358 - went above the 50,000 mark for the first time since 1992 and represented an increase in the number of births for the second successive year.
He said the Department of Education's projections for enrolments are based on an estimated annual birth total of 46,000 for the years 1996-99. "There are now at least 5,000 more pre primary children than were expected. By the year 2000 the number of children will be 20,000 more than forecast. This will require approximately 1,000 additional teachers.
Senator O'Toole said the forecasters who said the birth numbers would continue to fall well into the new millennium had not allowed for immigration, decreased emigration and a younger population.
"An expanding economy with a consequent increase in wealth has resulted in people starting families or marrying at a younger age. School population is increasing and there is no provision being made for the extra pupils."
He said the Irish primary school system already had a chronic teacher shortage, with some teachers having to take on the "potentially hazardous" task - with all its discipline and learning problems - of teaching classes of more than 40 pupils.
He cited 1994-95 Department of Education figures showing that 228,847 children were in classes of 30-39 pupils 74,247 in classes of 35-39, and 3,698 in classes of over 40.
"It is a scandalous fact than half of all primary school pupils are in classes of over 30. Almost 1,000 primary schools have no access whatsoever to a remedial teacher. There is only one psychologist for every 35,000 pupils. School authorities can no longer find qualified substitute teachers to cover for teachers who are ill."
He said the Department of Education had confirmed there were 320 schools designated disadvantaged. Of these, 250 are designated disadvantaged for staffing and funding, and these have been given 293 disadvantaged teaching posts. These 320 schools are in addition to the 147 disadvantaged schools in the Department's "Breaking the Cycle" initiative.
Senator O'Toole said the INTO's priorities were to reduce class sizes to increase the proportion of non teaching school principals, whose numbers in 1994-95 were only 690 in 3,203 ordinary national schools; to appoint remedial teachers to the more than 900 schools which do not have such services; to set up a supply teachers panel to give principals time to do administrative work; to provide additional teachers for children with special needs in mainstream schools; and to extend the existing supply teacher panel system to provide proper cover for absent teachers.