The impact of activity by elements of the IRA on political progress in the North will be one of the main issues to be considered by the Taoiseach and the British prime minister when they meet for talks in Dublin today.
Mr Ahern and Mr Blair will meet at Farmleigh to try to devise a strategy which could lead to the restoration of the Northern institutions before the end of the year. The Ministers for Foreign Affairs and Justice, Dermot Ahern and Michael McDowell, and Northern Secretary Peter Hain will also attend the talks.
The report of the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC), which will be formally handed over to the two governments in the next few days, will have a strong bearing on the course of events over the next few months. The indications are that while the IMC report will be largely positive, it will not give a clean bill of health to the IRA.
It is expected the IMC will express satisfaction that the leadership of the IRA has adhered to the order to cease all activity. However, it will also note the continuation of low-level activity on the part of some IRA elements.
Both governments fear such a finding will provide the DUP with a justification for refusing to engage in direct talks with Sinn Féin for the foreseeable future.
The DUP has always insisted the republican movement would have to undergo a "decontamination period" even after all IRA activity ceased. The IMC is due to report in April and the governments hope it can be confirmed that all IRA activity has stopped.
The DUP has proposed a two- stage restoration of the suspended Assembly with the appointment of ministers defer- red until unionists are satisfied about Sinn Féin's commitment to exclusively peaceful and democratic means and the end of all alleged IRA criminality.
Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams yesterday called on the governments "to make it clear" to the Rev Ian Paisley that the object of forthcoming talks is to fully restore all the institutions of the Belfast Agreement.
He said the DUP cannot be allowed to block the full reinstatement of the Executive and Assembly.
In the absence of direct negotiations between the parties the Taoiseach and prime minister will devise their strategy for the talks between the governments and the parties on an individual basis.
Mr Ahern and Mr Hain will meet in London on Wednesday to finalise arrangement for the talks which will begin at Stormont the following week.
After his meeting at Farmleigh the prime minister will pay a courtesy call on President Mary McAleese at Áras an Uachtaráin. It will be the first formal meeting between Mr Blair and the President and will again fuel speculation about the timing of a visit to Ireland by Queen Elizabeth.
Meanwhile, the House of Commons Select Committee on Northern Ireland will conclude a two-day visit to Dublin this evening. The committee is investigating the criminal activities of paramilitary bodies.