THE IRA maintained a close watch on the Stormont talks between Sinn Fein and the British government, which began four months after the August 1994 ceasefire.
The Belfast IRA man who monitored the talks is believed by senior security sources to have responsibility for directing IRA operations. They also believe he would have had control over the Canary Wharf bombing.
According to republican sources in Dublin, the IRA has been telling its members that the Canary Wharf bomb was a "oneoff" incident, which was meant to affect the political process rather than restart the conflict in Northern Ireland.
Gardai believe that the planning of the bomb attack was carried out in the Border area of Monaghan and Louth.
There has been unusual activity, believed to be associated with the IRA, in this area in recent weeks.
Last week, gardai in Co Louth disturbed men acting suspiciously close to farm buildings near Ardee and there was speculation among detectives that the men were preparing a hide for explosives or weapons.
Three weeks ago, gardai in Co Monaghan saw flashes and heard bangs in countryside near Scotstown, in sparsely populated, rugged countryside where the IRA has traditionally test fired weapons.
A year ago, the IRA test fired a new version of the large "barrack buster" mortar at Knockatallon bog, near Scotstown.
Parts recovered at the scene showed the IRA had improved the range and aiming mechanism of this weapon which, in its previous less refined form, had been used to devastating effect on rural security force bases in the Border area.
Until Garda searches for IRA weapons were virtually stopped last year - with the exception of one recent, small scale search in Co Kerry - there was clear evidence that the IRA was still moving weapons around in the Meath Louth area. Rifles, Semtex explosive and mortar parts were all found in the area around Athboy, Co Meath, in the early part of last year.
The gardai also believe that the IRA has continued to smuggle weapons into the country, and that it has been using members of other republican paramilitary organisations, such as the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA).
There have also been reports that the IRA has continued to raise money and launder it through businesses in Dublin.
The Garda Special Branch has always kept an updated assessment of the membership of the IRA army council".
The Garda view was that the army council" included three senior Sinn Fein members from Belfast, Derry and Donegal; two veteran figures, one from Monaghan and one from Belfast; and two others including, at one stage, a woman living in Co Louth.
It now appears that the IRA may have began to consider pulling back from the "peace process at around the time of the London summit in the days before the visit to Ireland by President Clinton.
In the communique issued after the hastily arranged summit, the notion of assembly elections was raised and, in republican eyes, this equates very strongly with an "internal" political settlement in Northern Ireland.
Immediately after this summit and in spite of President Clinton's urgings against violence, the IRA began killing petty criminals and drug dealers in Belfast and north Armagh. Six men were killed within a month.
The opposition within the IRA to the direction which political negotiations between Dublin and London were taking would have been greatly increased by the British Prime Minister's proposal for assembly elections in response to the report of the decommissioning body led by former US Senator George Mitchell.
The IRA has remained insistent on all party talks without any precondition of arms surrender beforehand. In IRA eyes, decommissioning weapons prior to talks would be tantamount to an act of surrender.
A bomb attack similar to the bombings in the City of London in April, 1992, and April, 1993, had always been the most likely IRA response to a breakdown in the ceasefire.
The IRA figures who argued against the ceasefire believed that the British government went into secret talks with the IRA leadership in 1993 only because of the effect of the London bomb attacks.
These IRA figures continued to argue, until the ceasefire began to appear an inevitability, that further bomb attacks in London would force Britain to withdraw from Northern Ireland.
The threat of conflict in Ireland between loyalists and nationalists, in response to a British withdrawal brought about by terrorist action, does not appear to figure in the reckoning of this element within the IRA.
It is also possible that the bombing in London might have been for somewhat more prosaic reasons than a failure in the political process.
There have been growing signs of tension, and even of a split, within provisional republicanism.
The Republican Sinn Fein splinter organisation, which broke away from the Gerry Adams led Sinn Fein in 1986 and has always opposed the ceasefire, has continued to press - for a renewal of the armed campaign.
Likewise, some INLA members in Belfast and Dublin have spoken out against a ceasefire. The INLA leader in Belfast, Gino Gallagher, said publicly that his group was attracting disaffected IRA members only about two weeks before he was shot dead.
Although RSF and the INLA have made little apparent inroads into mainline Sinn Fein support, they remained as alternative vehicles for disaffected IRA members.
In the last issue of the RSF news sheet, Saoirse, there was an announcement that a new "revolutionary" IRA had emerged. This group, calling itself, the "Continuity Army Council", said it was the uncompromised army executive" of the IRA and vowed to take action "at an appropriate time" to further its aim of a united independent Ireland.
Although there have been very few defections to RSF, one or two well known Sinn Fein members in Border areas of Monaghan and. Fermanagh are reported to have switched allegiance.
There have also been recent reports that IRA elements in the Border area were on the verge of breaking away and, in some rural areas, may already have done so. There is strong suspicion that the gunmen who fired shots at an RUC reservist's house, outside Moy, Co Armagh, 10 days ago, had broken away from the IRA.
Republican sources have stated in the past that rather than risk a serious split in the republican movement, which comprises Sinn Fein, the IRA and the associated single issue groups, there would be a return to the armed campaign.
There is a strong possibility that the threat of a split played a significant part in the decision by the leadership of the republican movement to risk a "one off" bomb attack in London despite the risks of restarting a sectarian conflict in Ireland and of losing political contacts and international acceptance.