The Independent Monitoring Commission's latest report, which is expected to guardedly state that the IRA has been observing its July commitments to remain inactive, will be published in Dublin tomorrow.
The Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dermot Ahern, and Northern Secretary Peter Hain will meet at Iveagh House, Dublin, where they will formally publish the IMC document, well placed sources said yesterday.
In the afternoon in Dublin the IMC will hold a press conference to elaborate on the detail in the report, which is expected to confirm that since its July 28th statement the IRA has not engaged in paramilitary activity. The, report, however may be more circumspect about IRA criminality, pointing to difficulties of establishing whether smuggling or other criminal activities are the work of the IRA, or carried out for personal gain by individual IRA members, sources said.
This report covers from March 1st this year to August 31st and is therefore virtually certain to state that ahead of the IRA's July statement formally ending its armed campaign, the IRA was engaged in activity such as "punishment" attacks and surveillance.
It is likely to take in some of the period after August 31st and state in a qualified way that since July 28th the IRA has ceased activity, as it pledged.
The IMC may also make some initial comments about IRA decommissioning.
One source said that this report was likely to be "guardedly positive" about the IRA, but that a fuller examination of whether it is truly inactive won't be available until its next report on the IRA in January.
Mr Dermot Ahern, who visited Newry and Armagh yesterday, and Mr Hain are meeting in Dublin tomorrow at a British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference. They are likewise minded that it will take at least until the January report to determine whether the IRA has ceased all paramilitary activity.
In the coming months the British and Irish governments are due to initiate a number of unionist and also nationalist confidence-building measures aimed at clearing the ground to create the potential for political negotiations aimed at restoring devolution in the new year.
Taoiseach Bertie Ahern is due to visit the North early next month. Also sometime before Christmas the British prime minister Tony Blair is expected to make a keynote speech in Northern Ireland outlining how political progress could be made next year.
SDLP leader Mark Durkan is leading a senior party delegation in talks with Mr Blair at Downing Street this afternoon. Today's meeting will concentrate on advancing the Belfast Agreement, particularly its North-South dimension.
