THE IRA is believed to be moving towards a renewal of its ceasefire are and to be preparing to hold a General Army Convention, despite official denials by the Sinn Fein leadership.
The Government has been made aware in recent weeks of the IRA's intentions from Garda intelligence reports.
It appears that during the summer, when the North came close to sectarian conflict, the balance of opinion within the IRA swung back in favour of support for a ceasefire and a political path led by Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness, of Sinn Fe in.
When it sits, the IRA General Army Convention is the "supreme authority" in the IRA. Only it has the power to call a permanent ceasefire.
The 18 month "ceasefire" which ended last February was not preceded by a General Army Convention, but was called by the seven member IRA Army Council. The 18 months of "peace" was always referred to as a "cessation" by the IRA.
It is understood that a majority on the Army Council turned against the "cessation" in November last year and decided to resume the campaign of violence.
However, both the IRA and Sinn Fe in have suffered severe setbacks since the return to violence. The IRA murder of Det Garda Jerry McCabe in Adare, Co Limerick, on June 7th undermined the credibility of the anticeasefire element among its leadership.
The Garda Special Branch has also succeeded in breaching the IRA's security. In the past month it is understood that gardai have learnt of the swing of support within the IRA back towards the Adams leadership and a renewed peace process.
A remaining concern is that militant elements within the IRA might try to precede a ceasefire with a major act of violence.
Security sources, however, believe that a majority within the IRA, particularly inside Northern Ireland, is expected to back Mr Adams's "unarmed strategy" at a General Army Convention.
The apparent leaking of information about the planned IRA convention to British newspapers at the weekend has angered the Sinn Fein leadership and may have shaken the moves towards an early ceasefire. Mr Adams said that he had heard "no such reports", adding: "I believe that this contrived speculation is coming from British intelligence sources and that their objective is to create confusion and sow dissension."
He repeated his demand for an inclusive process of negotiation, without preconditions, "with confidence building measures by the British government". This was essential if they were to "close the gap of distrust which British government bad faith reinforced over the 18 months of the IRA cessation".
Senior security sources yesterday confirmed that there had been very clear intelligence reports of preparations for an IRA General Army Convention preceding a ceasefire. This had been communicated to the Government, it is understood, prior to the Taoiseach's recent visit to the United States, during which Mr Bruton indicated that there were some grounds for hoping that an IRA ceasefire could be reinstituted.
Only two General Army Conventions have been held by the IRA in the course of the present conflict, one in 1970 and the other in 1986.
Deaglan de Breadun, Political Reporter, writes: The Minister for Social Welfare and leader of Democratic Left, Mr De Rossa, said that he had no knowledge of any IRA convention to discuss a ceasefire. However, if such was the case, it would be "a hopeful sign".