US: A US congressional report yesterday warned there were "significant gaps" in US intelligence on Iran that could be as serious as the shortcomings in pre-war knowledge about Iraq, leaving Washington ill-prepared to assess Tehran's military capabilities. The warning came as the Bush administration struggled to hold together an international coalition to force Iran to give up its nuclear programme.
A new report by the House of Representatives intelligence committee suggested that the administration was ill-equipped to drive a hard bargain and that "policymakers will need high-quality intelligence to assess Iranian intentions to prepare for any new round of negotiations".
Iran, by contrast, is widely considered to be in a strong negotiating position. Analysis published yesterday by the Royal Institute of International Affairs at Chatham House in London said there was "little doubt that Iran has been the chief beneficiary of the war on terror in the Middle East". It said Iran had gained from the defeat of two of its immediate regional rivals, Saddam Hussein in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan.
"The US-driven agenda for confronting Iran is severely compromised by the confident ease with which Iran sits in its region," it said. "Iran views Iraq as its own backyard and has now superseded the US as the most influential power there."
The war between Hizbullah and Israel has strengthened Iran's regional influence, because the Arab world perceived the US as uncritically backing Israel. Hizbullah, backed by Iran, saw its status soar in Arab opinion for its ability to survive Israeli attacks.