Analysis: The US is making all the wrong moves in Iraq, writes Michael Jansen.
April 2003 was a cruel month for former Iraqi president Saddam Hussein. He saw his troops defeated and his regime collapse and was forced into hiding.
April 2004 is the cruellest month the Bush administration has suffered so far in Iraq. US and allied troops cannot control the country and the occupation regime installed by Washington has lost relevance.
The US told Iraqis it waged war to liberate them and bring democracy and prosperity to their country. But the US has failed. Without law and order, Iraqis are not free.
The US chief administrator, Mr Paul Bremer, rules Iraq and analysts expect the transfer of "sovereignty" to a still-undefined Iraqi governing body on June 30th to be symbolic.
More than 30 per cent of the Iraqi workforce is unemployed and prices are rising more rapidly than salaries. Iraqis realise that they could face unending occupation and seem to be, increasingly, turning to the armed resistance to deliver their country.
The Bush administration's strategy for maintaining the US hold on Iraq rests on three pillars - the US armed forces, the Kurds and the Shias. But these pillars are being severely weakened by the play of political forces and violence.
Pressure is growing on the US armed forces, now 135,000-strong in Iraq, rather than allied troops, numbering about 20,000. The overall deployment is inadequate and cannot provide security.
Troops are coming under increasing threat of attack. Reservists are resentful because they are being called upon to serve in Iraq for a year or more, disrupting their lives and careers.
The number of killed, wounded and sent home due to stress is rising. Over the past week at least 40 US troops have died. Morale is sinking.
Iraqi troops, security forces and police refuse to fight their countrymen and 20-25 per cent have recently quit or failed to appear for duty.
The administration is speaking of increasing the level of deployment.
Reliance on the Kurds was guaranteed to cause political problems with Iraq's 80-85 per cent Arab majority. In exchange for their support, the Bush administration promised that Iraq would become a federation in which the Kurds will have autonomy.
The Arabs oppose federation and are deeply suspicious of the motives of the Kurds who, over the past 80 years, staged repeated insurrections under the banner of independence.
Young Kurds are openly calling for secession. Iraq's Arabs are ready to wage civil war to prevent this from happening.
The Shias, the essential Iraqi pillar, were prepared to wait for the US to bring democracy to Iraq in the expectation that they, as the majority, would dominate.
But the US tilt towards the Shias prompted Sunnis to take up arms against the occupiers, stalling the democratisation programme. The senior Shia cleric, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, who opposes occupation but urges his people not to resist violently, has rejected three plans put forward by Mr Bremer for the creation of an Iraqi body to take over from the occupation administration. Sistani continues to call for elections which cannot be held due to instability.
Shia patience is exhausted. Sistani's non-violent opposition to the occupation is under challenge from Sheikh Moqtada al-Sadr, the radical Shia preacher who founded the Mahdi army.
Originally created as an unarmed movement working on uplift projects in Shia urban slums, the army swelled with recruits and armed, took over the sprawling Shia slum in Baghdad, Kufa, and neighbourhoods in Najaf, Diwaniyah and Basra.
While al-Sadr's followers staged mass protests against the occupation, they remained non-violent until last week when Mr Bremer shut al-Sadr's newspaper, Hawza, for incitement, and detained a key aide, Sayed Mustafa Yaacoubi. His supporters staged a demonstration outside the fortified Green Zone, where the US has its headquarters.
Mr Bremer declared al-Sadr an outlaw and activated an warrant for his arrest. The young cleric instantly became an Iraqi hero.
Mr Bremer's timing could not have been worse. Yesterday several million Shias made the pilgrimage to the holy city of Kerbala on the anniversary of the 40th day after the slaying of Hussein, grandson of the prophet Muhammad and Shiaism's second Imam. Al-Sadr began a hunger strike at a religious retreat in the area. Any attempt to arrest al-Sadr, who is surrounded by well armed militia men, would have been seen as an act of war against the entire Shia world.
The US must now rely on Shia members of the Governing Council, appointed by Mr Bremer, to negotiate a deal with al-Sadr, enhancing his stature. If al-Sadr's rebellion continues, dovetails with the Sunni resistance, and gathers momentum, it can only weaken Sistani's restraining hold on on the Shias, toppling the key Iraqi pillar of the occupation.
In spite of the unrest, the US has to stay on in Iraq. Washington not only overthrew the brutal dictatorship of Saddam but also transformed Iraq from a troubled but functioning state into a failed state.
If the US fails to restore order and abandons its mission to bring a measure of freedom and democracy and rebuild Iraq, the country could fragment, destabilising the oil rich region which the Bush administration says it sought to secure when it invaded and occupied Iraq.