IRELAND/IRAQ: Ireland should not give refuelling and overflight facilities to US military aircraft for an invasion of Iraq, according to Mr Riad El-Taher, an Iraqi-born British subject and chairman of the London-based Friendship Across Frontiers group which has campaigned for the lifting of Iraqi sanctions since 1993.
"It would be tragic if the neutrality of Ireland has been undermined. Are you neutral or not? You can't really play it both ways," he said on a visit to Dublin.
When asked why Iraq would not admit UN arms inspectors, if it had nothing to hide, Mr El-Taher said he had spoken about this with the Deputy Prime Minister, Mr Tariq Aziz in Baghdad recently.
"He raised no objection to allowing inspectors back in, in different circumstances, namely, the removal of the possibility of war." Allowing inspectors in under present conditions would "undermine the security of the country".
On the effect of a US-led invasion, Mr El-Taher predicted a war of attrition. "The Iraqi people are no match for American might and the outcome will be quite apparent, but what may follow afterwards?"
He continued: "America will resort to all kinds of weapons in order to flatten Iraq and inflict tremendous civilian casualties to avoid losing some of their servicemen."
He added, "I don't think the Iraqis will give in easily." He predicted that, "once the regime is gone, the Americans will have to be present for a long time. I can't see that the Iraqi people will welcome a government propped-up by the Americans." The situation would be "very precarious". On the position of the British Prime Minister, he said: "Unfortunately, I don't think Blair is really listening to the party or even to the parliament. He is pursuing his own agenda, which is very regrettable." When it was put to him that many people in the West regarded Saddam Hussein as a cruel dictator who should be replaced by an elected leader, Mr El-Taher replied:
"I don't think democracy can be weighed in such a way. It is naïve of the West to assume that they can remove a dictator and bring democracy the next day. It will take a long time to educate people in democracy. Iraq's history reflects that."
Iraq had a "tribal" system of government, similar to many other Arab countries. "If you look at \ President Mubarak, he is no different than Saddam, he is running the country on his own."
Mr El-Taher is also a shareholder in Bula Resources.