RUGBY:Declan Kidney has likened Ireland's arduous campaign to a sequence of Cup finals and, this being the finale, it truly does fall into that category.
There may be no Grand Slam or title at stake, but playing the auld enemy at their citadel on St Patrick’s Day at 5pm makes it a fairly grand occasion as meaningless end-of-tournament dead rubbers go.
Tickets have been like gold dust for weeks and, with a much more discernible Irish presence yesterday than in Paris even for the postponed game, the expectation is for a mass green invasion amongst the Twickers’ hamper set.
More than anything else an Anglo-Irish sporting clash has pride at stake, but the ramifications of today’s results are significant. The carrot for Ireland is a climb from seventh to fifth in the world if they win, but a drop to eighth if they lose, while England can retain their fourth placed ranking with a win, though could drop to seventh in defeat.
Admittedly, as Kidney pointed out on his eve-of-match press conference (which inconveniently clashed with the Gold Cup, tut-tut) after a snappy captain’s run at Twickenham, this works both ways and won’t count for much come kick-off. Just as pertinently, he noted: “The one thing I’ve learned this year is that it’s always good to finish with a win because that’s the one you live with for a couple of months.”
“But I think all that goes out the window at 4:55 tomorrow. It’s all about playing the game, because if you’re thinking about anything else other than what’s straight in front of you, they’re only sideshows, really. It’s just about concentrating on the first 10 minutes, and then next 10 minutes after that. These things are very much clichés but the longer I’m in it, the more of a truism I know it to be.”
Kidney was also unsure whether Ireland’s record of seven wins in the last eight championship meetings was a hindrance or a help, and as it assuredly sticks in English craws, most probably it’s the former.
The English camp also seems notably more bullish in the aftermath of their win in Paris, and in noting the challenge, assistant coach Andy Farrell declared: “These boys aren’t frightened of anything. We are up for any type of challenge. We don’t know fear.”
Invariably, the only word which has crossed the Irish Sea all week has been Stephen Ferris’ comment about England being “arrogant”, even if that was in reference to the past.
“They obviously haven’t been watching,” said Farrell. “You couldn’t get a harder-working, more humble group of blokes than the side we have here. Rightfully so, they (Ireland) have a good record here, but that means nothing to this England group. Only a handful of these players were involved in any of those games.”
With the advent of Ben Morgan at number eight and Manu Tuilagi at outside centre giving England real go-forward dynamism, and the Lee Dickson-Owen Farrell combination providing direction to the prosaic building blocks of the wins in Edinburgh and Rome, England have momentum to go with a whiff of vengeance.
Stopping Morgan and Tuilagi will be critical and Ferris, Ireland’s player of the tournament with his concentration, intensity and high impact tackles or carries, will again be a key man.
The Ulster presence hasn’t been so strong since the expansion into six nations, and as if to underline this, 10 of Ireland’s 13 tries have been scored by Ulster players.
Yet, ironically, if not unusually for him, the one Ulster man has made the most noise in camp has been the tryless Ferris, according to Best. “The only one who has been commenting on the tries is Stevie, who’s running around telling everyone that he’s got the most assists. That’s really about it.”
Much is still made of Keith Earls getting his bearings wrong for Tuilagi’s early try at the Aviva last August. There’s no doubt the latest from that remarkable Samoan clan at 17-and-a-half stone is frighteningly hard to stop if allowed into his stride, but Earls has been pretty faultless since, and completed 16 tackles last week. Tuilagi can have his defensive miss-reads too, although inside him, nothing gets past Brad Barritt.
This being Ireland’s fourth game in four weekends, Best also played down fatigue being a factor, maintaining they’ve been well managed and the momentum generated has been a positive.
Only time will tell, and presumably there will again be pro-active use of the bench, though you wouldn’t want Ireland to be chasing the game late on.
As we’ve been reminded in this tournament, one big play early on can have a seismic effect on the rest of the 80, and with the desire to quieten the home crowd also in mind, Kidney’s point about a good start becomes even more relevant.
It’s also hard to envisage there being a lob-sided advantage either way in the set-pieces, although akin to the Scottish game, this may again depend on Ireland avoiding Tom Croft at line-out time. The four collisions between the big four have all been one-score games and, in what is liable to be a taut arm wrestle with rain forecast, there’s little reason for believing this will be any different.
Certainly Bowe and co will have to work harder for their tries than last week, though the suspicion lurks a more developed Irish side have more football, variety, creativity and smarts to their game as well as, if it comes to it, some bloke called Ronan O’Gara on the bench.
Match Betting (courtesy of Paddy Powers):4/6 England, 20/1 Draw, 5/4 Ireland.
Forecast:Ireland to win.
