The options are stark for the Labour Party.
The thrashing it received at the general election has put the party in a position of extreme precariousness – perhaps the most acute crisis in its long history.
Squeezed by Sinn Féin and the radical left in the working- class part of its base, by Independents of all stripes everywhere, by Fianna Fáil always and even by Fine Gael in places such as Dún Laoghaire, Labour faces strong electoral headwinds whenever the next election takes place.
Many in the party are fearful that Labour’s time as a meaningful force in Irish politics could be coming to an end. Others say: hold on. The party came back from a near-wipeout in 1987 after another unhappy period in government during a time of economic crisis.
But it bounced back; three years later Mary Robinson was in the Áras, and two years after that the Spring Tide swept 33 Labour TDs into the Dáil.
Left challenge
Still, comparisons are wispy. Back then Irish politics was still rooted in a 2½ party system. Labour did not have the challenge to its left that Sinn Féin, the radical parties and Independents represent today.
Back then Labour had 12 seats, nearly twice as many as now, enough to maintain a strong presence in the Dáil from opposition. It had a young leader in Dick Spring, who had most of the party united behind him. Its natural constituency was not being chiselled away beneath it.
None of those things are true today. So what are Labour’s options?
The first is to go into opposition and try to rebuild. This was the first reaction of most people in the party in the wake of the general election result.
However, the “rebuild in opposition” school of thought often fails to take into account the realities of what opposition in the 32nd Dáil would be like.
In the game of parliamentary numbers, Labour would rank behind Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and at least one technical group, and behind the radical left in volume and acerbity, meaning it would be extremely difficult to establish a strong presence in Dáil debates.
Spring became the effective leader of the opposition in the Dáil, but Joan Burton – or whoever leads Labour – isn't going to do that.
Media attention
In addition, it would be harder to get media airtime and column inches. There party would risk becoming irrelevant to political debate.
And what would Labour actually be opposing anyway?
Fine Gael has swung so far to the left in its negotiations with the Independents (at least on matters of tax and spending) that its emerging programme for government will likely be more left wing than Labour’s manifesto. Will the party oppose policies everyone knows they were in favour of when in government?
The second option is to co-operate with Fine Gael in a “confidence and supply” arrangement, as Fianna Fáil proposes to do. But it’s hard to see a distinctive role in such an arrangement.
And Labour would have the same worry now exercising some minds in Fianna Fáil: that it has the responsibility of government without any of the power or profile.
Go back in
The third option is to do a U-turn and participate in a coalition government with Fine Gael. Were Labour to do this, sources say it would be the trigger for re-engaging the
Greens
. It is certain that Fine Gael would welcome Labour back with open arms.
Going back into government would certainly expose Labour to a torrent of derision from its opponents and much of the media. It would cause ructions in the party and probably provoke resignations from the organisation and possibly the parliamentary party.
What it would also do is give Labour the profile and resources necessary to rebuild itself. It would put Labour ministers in power to implement the party’s agenda on social housing, education, workers’ protections, public investment, the minimum wage, repeal of the Eighth Amendment and so on.
Returning to government might turn out to be the final nail in Labour’s coffin. Those within the party who are advocating for it this weekend acknowledge that. But they also say: it gives us a fighting chance.
