Caution has given way to confidence
Ireland’s economy is forecast to continue growing steadily in 2016, but at a slightly slower rate than in 2015. The advance is underpinned by increased employment, with 130,000 more people at work than at the nadir. In 2015, the unemployment rate dropped below 9 per cent for the first time since the crash, down in three years from 15.2 per cent. A sense of caution has gradually given way to increased consumer confidence, driving retail activity and higher discretionary spending. All of this spurs the local economy.
Despite increased uncertainty in the global economy, Ireland benefits from benign external forces. Oil is at its lowest price for seven years, so it costs less to refuel a car. Super-low interest rates deliver a boost to hundreds of thousands of people who hold tracker mortgages. The euro’s low value against the dollar and sterling helps exporters. The State itself gains from the European Central Bank stimulus programme as it cuts the cost of servicing the large national debt.
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The big issue in the new year is the election. In question in the economic sense is whether the next administration maintains the course of fiscal rectitude. Financial markets believe it will and that the State will start selling the nationalised Allied Irish Banks to the stock market in 2016. Still, any repudiation of astringent fiscal targets by the next government could trigger an investor backlash.
There are other vulnerabilities. An acute housing shortage and numerous unresolved mortgage arrears are legacies of the crisis. Any growing economy must also avoid cost pressures and ensure that job vacancies can be filled, which becomes more difficult as unemployment declines.
The slowdown in China and low euro zone growth present further risks, as does Britain’s referendum on Europe and the prospect of a Brexit from the EU.
Franchises, fish tales and Oscar favourites
In 2016, it'll be all Star Wars this and Star Wars that. You'll be sick of the thing by the time Christmas rolls around. No, we haven't printed last year's preview by mistake. Gareth Edwards's Rogue One: A Star Wars Story really will be premiering at Christmas. The franchise season kicks off as early as March with the release of Zack Snyder's potentially enormous Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. In early May, summer begins when the Marvel family – Iron Man, Black Widow, Black Panther – come together for Captain America: Civil War. There's more where that came from. Ryan Reynolds is the fiercely violent Deadpool. Michael Fassbender changes tack as the antihero of the videogame adaptation Assassin's Creed. And so on.
The good news from the mainstream is that we will, in 2016, finally see a sequel to Finding Nemo. If Finding Dory is as good as Pixar's Toy Story follow-ups, then June will prove a very happy month indeed.
Before then we have plenty to enjoy from the fag-end of Oscar season. Lenny Abrahamson's devastating Room – whose Brie Larson is runaway favourite for best actress – will be with us in mid-January. The same day, audiences will get a chance to be slapped into silence by Leonardo Di Caprio, best actor front-runner, in Alejandro G. Iñárritu's ruthless survival tale The Revenant. What will win best picture? Tom McCarthy's excellent Spotlight, the story of the Boston Globe's investigation into clerical child abuse, pushes all the academy's buttons. You can see it from January 29th.
Of course, come the end of the year, we'll be into 2017 Oscar rumbles. We're hoping that Martin Scorsese's Silence, starring Andrew Garfield and Liam Neeson as priests in 17th-century Japan, will be with us by December. Can't wait that long? Whet your appetite for quality with the Coen brothers' Hail, Caesar! That barmy Hollywood satire detonates in February. It looks an absolute hoot.
U2’s experience and a sighting of Springsteen
The biggest Irish album of 2016 will arrive in February. That will be the second release from trad supergroup The Gloaming, whose debut in 2014 was a huge success. The album was recorded in Real World Studios last month and it will be interesting to hear the band’s new shapes and structures.
The other big Irish album of 2016 will be U2's Songs Of Experience album, although it's open to question if it will suddenly arrive unannounced on our phones like the last one. The overwhelmingly positive reaction to the band's recent run of live indoor shows ensures many previously sceptical about U2 may be willing to give them another chance to impress when that album lands.
Live, the hottest ticket is Adele who opens her 2016 world tour with four dates in Belfast and Dublin in February and March. Her comeback album 25 broke all manner of records and tour dates sold out in nanoseconds.
At the time of writing, no acts have yet been announced for Croker, but we know that Rihanna will return to Dublin’s Aviva Stadium on June 21st, two years after her last appearance there.
The Iveagh Gardens is one of the best outdoor venues in the land and John Grant (July 9th) and Wilco (July 10th) will be in situ there next year. Acts already confirmed for the Live at the Marquee series in Cork include Nathan Carter, The Coronas and Dropkick Murphys. The Stone Roses play Dublin’s Marlay Park on July 9th, showing that promoters really are running out of fresh, new headliners.
We can probably expect Coldplay to land here at some stage, while the announcement by Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band of a US tour for early 2016 gives hope to European fans of a visit here during the year.
Given that the promoter has already said about half of the tickets are already sold, expect the Electric Picnic to continue on its merry 50,000-plus capacity way too.
Ravaging conflict and political vacuum in the Middle East
The optimism of the Arab Spring is a distant memory. Five years after the demonstrations that swept dictators from power in Tunisia and Egypt, sending a ripple of revolutionary fervour across the region, the Middle East is in turmoil. And the prognosis for 2016 is scarcely better.
A grinding war in Syria has left the country ravaged, killing almost 250,000 people and setting off an exodus of millions. Even if the main external players can this year agree the outline of a political settlement – a big “if” given the bitter divisions between Russia, Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the US – the political transition will be slow and fraught. Western-led air strikes on Islamic State may intensify, but the jihadists will not be dislodged, let alone defeated, as long as they can continue to take advantage of the political vacuum.
As the world is drawn deeper into the conflict, its aftershocks will continue to pulse outwards. Syria’s neighbours, Lebanon and Jordan, face an ongoing struggle to cope with the flow of Syrian refugees.
Libya is in chaos, uncertainty hangs over Iraq and Afghanistan and Egypt is fighting to contain an Islamist insurgency in the Sinai peninsula. In Yemen, a war that has so far displaced a million people shows little sign of ending. As for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, seen by many as the key to achieving wider regional stability, the prospect of a political deal looks as distant as at any point since the Oslo accords were signed in 1993. Given that Washington, the most likely sponsor of any settlement, will be consumed by the Syrian crisis and the countdown to its own presidential election in November, the chances of an international peace initiative look remote.
A rare beacon of hope is Tunisia, however. Despite economic problems and a serious terrorist threat, the cradle of the 2011 uprisings remains on the road to peaceful democracy.
Holding court with Anglo, the Quinns and Denis O’Brien
The billionaire businessman Denis O’Brien is expected to feature in some of the stories that are likely to dominate news in the legal area during 2016.
Two of the cases he is involved with relate to the 2011 Moriarty tribunal report that made damning findings about O’Brien and the former minister Michael Lowry in relation to the granting of a mobile phone licence to Esat Digifone. O’Brien is a party to cases in which losing bidders for the licence, Persona and Comcast, are seeking very substantial damages from the State.
O’Brien is suing the lobbying and communications firm Red Flag, and a number of individuals associated with it, in an action where he is alleging conspiracy and defamation. He is also suing the the Dáil’s Committee on Procedure and Privileges and, in another related case, the Houses of the Oireachtas and the State, claiming that comments made by TDs were a breach of his rights under the Constitution and the European Convention on Human Rights.
The Quinn family case against the State, and the Irish Bank Resolution Corporation’s case against the Quinn family, are still waiting in the wings and a number of related Court of Appeal rulings are due in the first law term.
Praveen Halappanaver’s case against the HSE, arising from the death of his wife, Savita, is scheduled to be heard in March.
Over in the criminal courts, more cases arising from the workings of the former Anglo Irish Bank are waiting to be heard. Should the former chief executive of that bank, David Drumm, be extradited from the US, charges against him would make for one of next year’s highest-profile criminal cases.
Outside the courts, the legal world will have to get used to the new regime established by the Legal Services Regulation Act. The law provides for a new Legal Services Regulation Authority and for lawyers to organise themselves in new ways, including the creation of limited liability partnerships. ‘Given the commitment made by Fine Gael in relation to the matter, discussion on the wisdom or otherwise of holding another abortion referendum, and the question to be asked, looks inevitable.
The details of the new law on how asylum seekers are screened, and treated after they receive asylum, may also become a topic given that distressed migrants are part of the European story.
Europe: refugees, Brexit and climate change
While 2015 has seen the European Union lurch from one crisis to another, many in Brussels will be hoping for calmer waters in 2016. This appears unlikely, as the union of 28 member states braces itself for a packed agenda over the next 12 months, including the probability of a referendum on British membership.
The refugee crisis will continue to preoccupy minds, as Europe continues to struggle with the greatest migratory wave seen since the second World War. Specifically, the EU will be debating the introduction of a permanent quota system for refugees, with east European member states strongly against the idea. The future of the passport-free Schengen area is also up for discussion, amid fears that the recent reintroduction of passport checks at the EU’s internal borders could be here to stay.
Other foreign-policy issues include the expected renewal of Russian sanctions early in the new year as the Ukraine conflict rumbles on.
While the migration crisis has diverted attention away from Greece’s financial woes, Alexis Tsipras’s government must implement further austerity measures next year, raising the possibility that the Greek crisis could reignite at any point. With economic growth still restrained across the euro area, market watchers will also be watching for signs of further economic stimulus from ECB president Mario Draghi. Negotiations on the controversial EU-US trade deal are expected to gather pace in 2016 as officials try to seal a deal before the US elections.
A number of red-light issues are on the horizon for Ireland. The clampdown on corporate tax avoidance at EU level will continue, with the European Commission due to relaunch a controversial Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB).
An EU decision on climate change targets will also be reached in the first half of the year, with Ireland facing an uphill battle to convince other member states that it is entitled to special treatment to reflect the agricultural sector.
The Kardashianisation of a presidential race
The Trump factor. Five debates and many polls and angry rallies later, it is unclear how it will play out when voters soon start picking a nominee to lead Republicans in November’s presidential election.
The insurgent rise of the property tycoon and reality TV star Donald Trump on the right was mirrored on the left by Bernie Sanders, the socialist senator from Vermont. Sanders electrified grassroots liberals just as Trump fired up white conservatives.
In 2015, Trump tore up the standard campaign playbook. Dismissed as a circus act when he entered the race, branding Mexicans as rapists and drug dealers marauding across a porous southern border, he soared unexpectedly into first place and has stayed there. The attacks in Paris and San Bernardino have given Trump fresh momentum, fuelling even angrier rhetoric, such as a ban on all Muslims entering the US, that has been condemned as Islamophobic, racist and even fascist, as well as a threat to national security.
The censures inflicted no damage and the inflammatory remarks and bombastic performances continue, broadcast endlessly on the 24/7 news cycle. This is the Kardashianisation of presidential-race politics.
Trump heads into the first four successive nominating races – in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada – in February with a commanding lead, although it is skewed by a packed field of 13 candidates.
In the (much smaller) other field, the nomination is Clinton’s to lose. It hasn’t quite been the coronation some Democrats feared, but it hasn’t been far off it after Sanders gave her a pass on her email scandal. Democrats would relish a Clinton-Trump face-off in the November 8th ballot, putting pressure on the moderate Republican base to push a less divisive and more electable alternative to Hillary than The Donald.
Marco Rubio, the baby-faced senator from Florida, is the one Camp Clinton fears the most. At 44, the youngest candidate in the race, the Cuban-American’s up-from- the-bootstraps back story is Obamaesque. He is liked by conservatives and the Republican establishment, and could soothe Trump-inflicted wounds by appealing to minority voters with policies on immigration that are moderate for a Republican.
One to watch.
