Irish consumer sentiment steadies

Consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose last month as uncertainty over the scale of the budgetary adjustment facing the country …

Consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose last month as uncertainty over the scale of the budgetary adjustment facing the country declined.

But economists warned the survey, which was conducted in the middle of the month, did not reflect the period leading up to the EU/IMF bailout and that overall sentiment remained "overwhelmingly gloomy".

The KBC Ireland/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index rose marginally in November to 48.4 from 48.1 the previous month, reversing a steady decline in the three previous months.

However the three-month moving average, which gives a more reliable indication of the underlying trend, declined to 49.6 from the previous reading of 54.0 and continued to point towards a "darkening mood among Irish consumers".

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The November figure remains above the all-time low of 39.6 recorded in July 2008.

Nevertheless, the survey indicated three quarters of respondents believed the economy would get worse in 2011 while some two thirds expected their household income to deteriorate next year.

It also cautioned against extrapolating the trends “forward” given the “momentous changes” underway in the Irish economy at present.

KBC economist Austin Hughes said the November sentiment results were "encouraging as well as surprising".

"They may be no more than a statistical correction following the very sharp fall in recent months but they could also hint that even if Irish consumers remain very gloomy, confidence is not completely in freefall," he said.

"It will take another month or two of data to say whether Irish consumer confidence is bottoming out but it could be that most people have already priced in a great deal of bad news about their future.

While the emerging outlook in terms of general economic conditions and the prospects for household finances is likely to be very difficult, it may not be quite as awful as had been feared. It may also be that uncertainty is even more corrosive of confidence than a very painful reality," he said.

Retail Ireland, the Ibec group that represents the Irish retail sector, said the "positive" figures represented showed sentiment stabilised during the month.

Spokesman Torlach Denihan said: "The combination of the upcoming budget and the recently published four year plan means that consumers will soon have a greater degree of certainty about the future. This should help more normal consumption patterns to emerge."

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy

Eoin Burke-Kennedy is Economics Correspondent of The Irish Times