US: Up to 2,000 undocumented Irish immigrants will rally in Washington today in an attempt to salvage a faltering campaign for immigration reform.
Niall O'Dowd, chairman of the Irish Lobby for Immigration Reform, acknowledged that the prospect of a Bill to legalise most undocumented immigrants had become more remote in recent weeks. "After it passed the Senate, a number of immigration reform groups sat back and the momentum went . . . The chances of getting a Bill passed by November's elections have gone from 50/50 to about 30/70. But the chances of getting an immigration Bill in the next year remain good," he said.
The Irish immigrants will lobby congressmen and senators from both parties on Capitol Hill this morning before an open-air rally this afternoon, which will be addressed by senators Edward Kennedy and John McCain.
The Senate and the House of Representatives have passed very different immigration Bills, which must now be merged into compromise legislation negotiated in a conference of representatives from both houses.
The Senate Bill would strengthen border security but create a guest worker programme and allow most of the estimated 12 million illegal immigrants to remain in the country and eventually apply for US citizenship.
The House Bill focuses exclusively on enforcement, criminalising illegal immigrants and those who help them and offering no path to legalisation for undocumented immigrants already in the US.
Republicans have grown increasingly nervous of endorsing the Senate Bill after Brian Bilbray won a difficult congressional race in California by defying President Bush to oppose comprehensive immigration reform. Political analysts were watching closely the outcome of a Republican congressional primary in Utah yesterday, where incumbent Chris Cannon was being challenged by newcomer John Jacob.
Mr Jacob accuses Mr Cannon of being too soft on immigration and promises to oppose the Senate immigration Bill and Mr Bush's guest worker plan.
"I could lose if there are a bunch of people who are really afraid and they are going to vote and vote against me," Mr Cannon told CNN.
An opinion poll last week showed that most likely Republican voters favoured offering illegal immigrants a path to citizenship and opposed deporting those already in the US. Anti-immigration activists are highly vocal and organised within the Republican party, however, especially in border states but to some extent throughout the country.
Mr O'Dowd said he believed that if reform campaigners stepped up their lobbying, a Bill remained possible before November, but he suggested that a change in the balance of power after the elections could be the best outcome for immigrants.
"Everything could change dramatically if it returned to a Democratic majority. That may be our best bet," he said.