As tension mounts between the Robinson and Paisley blocs, Northern Editor Gerry Moriarty attempts to understand the DUP minefield
The British and Irish governments, the SDLP and Sinn Féin are warily attending to the utterings of Peter Robinson these days, much as a bomb-disposal technician checks his ground before entering a minefield.
There are undeniable signals from the Robinson pragmatists in the DUP that they are defusing part of their hardline stance on the Belfast Agreement. There are also signs of tensions between the Robinson and Paisley blocs of the DUP.
What is happening within the DUP today appears akin to what was happening within provisional republicanism 10 years ago, just ahead of Hume-Adams, the precursor to the IRA ceasefire the following year.
More by divination than through hard facts, we suspected then that radical shifts were taking place in the IRA and Sinn Féin, but to pin down the exact nature of that transformation was like handling mercury. Yet, what was divined transpired to be fact.
Derry DUP MLA Mr William Hay set all this latest speculation in motion with his comment last week that, with a clear "timetable for the dismantling of the IRA" and a clear message that the IRA "war is over", the DUP would do business with Sinn Féin. This did not reflect party policy, said a spokesman for the Rev Ian Paisley.
Several members of the DUP contacted by The Irish Times this week denied any divisions or adjustments on principle or policy. "All huff and guff," said the Rev William McCrea, who is firmly of the Paisley fundamentalist wing of the DUP.
Nevertheless one couldn't avoid wondering was this the start of a Robinson-inspired softening-up process, rather in the manner that Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness at critical periods of the peace process despatched more junior Sinn Féin members to begin the selling of difficult concepts.
On their own, Mr Hay's remarks don't amount to a DUP political sea change, but there are other indicators. In recent months, senior DUP politicians such as Mr Robinson, Mr Gregory Campbell and Mr Nigel Dodds appeared on TV discussion programmes with Sinn Féin representatives. Dr Paisley, we were told, was unhappy but so far he has tolerated this development.
At the DUP annual conference, Mr Robinson was the only speaker to advise delegates that there was no escaping the political rise of Sinn Féin. His demand was for the IRA to stand down, not to disband.
"The reality is that the DUP are opposed to the presence in an executive of the unrepentant representatives of active and armed terrorism." What the political anoraks noticed here were the qualifications "active and armed".
In London on Wednesday night, Mr Robinson was back in similar vein. In a fairly typical flint-edged speech was the comment that the DUP "cannot accept those who are linked to active terrorism ruling over those they continue to terrorise". Again the qualification of "active" terrorism.
That is what the current talks aimed at restoring devolution are primarily about: persuading the IRA to carry out those "acts of completion" requested by Mr Tony Blair to effectively demonstrate that the IRA is no longer "active" and that its war is over.
So, were the IRA to deliver those acts of completion - as is still possible - does it inevitably follow the DUP will join Sinn Féin in the Executive? It could hardly be so easy.
This is where those surveying the DUP minefield get queasy.
The UUP is understood to be quietly confident that it can still prevent the DUP overtaking it come the scheduled May election. The sceptics wonder is Mr Robinson, in order to defeat the UUP, working to a devious strategy where the DUP has hoovered up most of the anti-agreement vote and, if he is to deliver the knock-out punch to David Trimble, he may need additional votes from unionist waverers who are dithering between the DUP and UUP.
By indirectly or subliminally indicating a willingness to do business with Sinn Féin - without specifically saying so - he may be trying to woo that centrist vote by proving he is a pragmatist and prepared to break the mould fashioned by Dr Paisley.
Equally, he could be positioning himself against being out-flanked by Mr Trimble. For instance, were the IRA this time to do enough to convince Mr Trimble that its war was over, then it is possible that with the right momentum and mood - and Ulster Unionists arguing for the agreement - the majority of unionism could be persuaded.
That would upset Mr Robinson's First Minister ambitions because it would prove that against the odds Mr Trimble had delivered. But at least by indicating a reluctant capacity to deal with Sinn Féin, Mr Robinson would ensure that the DUP was not left behind in any new arrangement.
Mr Robinson is placing great store on DUP proposals for government based on a renegotiation of the agreement which it won't unveil until after the election. These proposals may prove academic because if the UUP, Sinn Féin and the SDLP reject any DUP deal, as is likely, then the options simply are to continue direct rule or devolution, as per the agreement.
Mr Robinson may not like being back in government with Sinn Féin - even if it is in the same semi-detached form as before - but he almost certainly would prefer it to direct rule. By softening his position now on Sinn Féin, he could at least re-enter the Executive without a total sense of embarrassment.
Mr Robinson would never concede such a point but perhaps he is also acknowledging that crude, negative Paisleyite politics must be consigned to history. If he and his party are to remain key players in the new dispensation, he may have recognised that he must prepare the DUP for biting the bullet and publicly co-operating, however reluctantly, with the dreaded enemy of Sinn Féin. How long such a process will take is the difficult question.
London, Dublin, Gerry Adams and Mark Durkan are treading very cautiously because they know that this could all explode in their faces. They know too that Dr Paisley still packs a punch, however diminished, and that one word from him - NO! - would scupper any manoeuvrings of his deputy leader.
One senior confidant of Gerry Adams, however, was certain that Mr Robinson was starting down a road that inexorably would lead to a historic compromise with republicanism.
"Once you soften your position you can't toughen it again. Republicans have learnt that and so will Peter Robinson."