Is the EU likely to allow its borders to extend as far as Iraq?

TURKEY: Standing in the European colours last September after winning the 1,500 metres in the Athletics World Cup in Madrid, …

TURKEY: Standing in the European colours last September after winning the 1,500 metres in the Athletics World Cup in Madrid, Turkish athlete Sureyya Ayhan sent out a message to Brussels. "The EU should see. Turkish people represent Europe in the best way," said the 24- year-old rising star.

Ayhan hit a nerve felt by Turks that double standards are being applied to their nation. While they can run for Europe, protect Europe through NATO, trade with Europe through a customs union and even sing in the Eurovision Song Contest, that doesn't mean they can join other European nations in the EU.

This debate is coming to a head in Turkey in the run-up to a general election on Sunday and following the EU Commission report earlier this month which said Turkey was not ready yet for an accession date.

The EU's main point is that Turkey has not yet reached European standards is in the area of human rights. The 2002 EU Regular Report on Turkey's Progress Towards Accession stated allegations continue to be made about torture in police custody. The report adds: "Sentences passed on those found guilty of torture or ill-treatment are often light and frequently converted into fines or suspended."

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Restrictions still exist on freedom of association and court cases continue to be brought against journalists, writers and publishers relating to freedom of expression. An Irish Times colleague was arrested and detained while researching hunger strikes in prisons there last year. Amnesty International also continues to highlight Turkey's violations of human rights.

However, the report does note legislation introduced in response to the criticism of previous reports. The latest package in August abolished the death penalty in peacetime and allowed for Kurdish languages and culture to be taught.

Seyfi Tashan, the director of the Turkish Foreign Policy Institute in Ankara, admits that problems still exist in the area of human rights but that things are changing. "When you consider the exponential progress made in Turkey, you won't have to wait 100 years for everything to be up to European standards," he says.

The EU is also alarmed at the lengths taken to show that despite Muslims making up 99 per cent of the population, Turkey is a secular state. Last month, the leader of the Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP), Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was banned from standing for election because of a criminal conviction for a reading out a poem at a rally in 1999 deemed to be "inciting religious hatred". The state prosecutor has taken action to ban the party itself.

The EU is also not happy at the influence the military has in Turkish politics. Apart from the role the National Security Council has in present domestic politics, the military's ousting from government of an Islamic party just five years ago in still fresh in the minds of many.

Along the busy streets of Istanbul, only a few women wearing head scarves can be seen among the young trendy types. Most Turks will tell you Islam does not interfere with their daily lives.

"Do you know what makes Turkey different from other predominantly Islamic states?" asks Sedat, a tour guide in Antalya region. "You can get pornography here; books, videos, you can even see it at the cinema," he says.

Yet despite this seeming co- existence of secular lifestyles with Islam, students and public employees are banned from wearing head-scarves in schools and at work.

Turkey has also not reached EU requirements set down to become a functioning market economy. As one of the IMF's biggest debtors, Turkey has a long way to go to settling its financial affairs.

Some observers though believe that human rights and market economics are being used as smokescreens by the EU and the "too big, too poor, too Muslim" factor is the real reason behind Brussels's foot-dragging. Its population of almost 70 million is growing at such a rate that it is on course to becoming bigger than that of Germany, the largest population in the EU. At such a size, a Turkish voice in the EU would be very powerful and the fear is it may not fit in with other European views.

The narrowly defeated German chancellor candidate, Mr Edmund Stoiber, said while on campaign that he did not believe Turkey should ever be a member of the EU. "Europe cannot end on the Turkish-Iraqi border."

The coming months will be crucial in determining the country's future. Opinion polls indicate that despite its leader being banned from standing, the AKP will win the most votes in the elections. EU reaction to this and any moves by the army to thwart such a win will be critical.

The final crunch will come in December when Turkey will eagerly again expect an accession date for EU membership at the Copenhagen summit. All indicators are that no date will be offered.

Some fear the effect this will have, as the Turkish Foreign Minister, Sukru Sina Gurel, recently signalled: "This will create such a big disappointment on the part of the Turkish public . . . any government will be forced to review the whole picture of Turkey-EU relations."