Israeli-Palestinian confrontation seems inevitable

In Khan Younis, in the Gaza Strip, Israeli troops and Palestinian policemen faced off against each other on Thursday, machineguns…

In Khan Younis, in the Gaza Strip, Israeli troops and Palestinian policemen faced off against each other on Thursday, machineguns cocked, on the brink of a bloody confrontation.

Demonstrations by Mr Yasser Arafat's Fatah loyalists in the past month have featured mock kidnappings of Israeli soldiers and theatrical "demolitions" of cardboard West Bank settlements.

Mr Arafat has taken to telling visiting delegations gloomily that if his supposed peace counterpart, the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, genuinely intends to move forward to reconciliation, there's been little concrete proof in the past year. Palestinian police officials speak matter-of-factly of the day when the order will come down to "lay off" the Islamic militants - to leave it to the Israeli security forces to battle alone against the suicide bombers of Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

Subtly but inexorably, the tentative Israeli-Palestinian partnership of 1993 to 1995, the RabinArafat years, has given way first to renewed suspicion, and now to deep hostility in the NetanyahuArafat era. A return to the widespread protests of the Intifada years seems inevitable, only with more bloodshed now that the Palestinians have their own armed police force.

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There are reports of the Palestinians acquiring anti-tank missiles, planting mines and digging tank traps in anticipation of the coming conflict with the Israeli army. The Israelis are said to have conducted training simulations for three scenarios of confrontation: low-level clashes throughout the West Bank and Gaza; repelling Palestinian attacks on Jewish settlements, and even re-invading the fully autonomous Palestinian areas of the West Bank and Gaza.

Among Palestinian leaders, until the last few days, there was a sense that hope was indeed running out, but that there would still be one last chance to resuscitate the partnership - at the separate meetings with Mr Netanyahu and Mr Arafat that President Clinton is holding next Tuesday and Thursday.

But that was before Mr David Levy quit as Israel's Foreign Minister, and before Mr Ariel Sharon, the Minister of Infrastructure, filled the Levy vacuum and emerged as the key figure shaping government policy.

Mr Netanyahu assured the diplomatic corps yesterday that he was serious about making peace, and that he would travel to Washington with "the necessary flexibility and the necessary firmness".

But with Mr Sharon ensconced as his right-hand man, and the cabinet spending its time drafting registers of Palestinian "violations" and lists of vital West Bank security zones, there is now little prospect of the Prime Minister briefing Mr Clinton on an imminent, substantive Israeli withdrawal from West Bank land.

Recognising that it is unlikely Mr Netanyahu will provide President Clinton with a detailed plan for the handover of at least 10 per cent more occupied West Bank territory, as the Americans had been demanding, the White House schedule-makers have allocated Mr Netanyahu a flat two hours with the President, with no breakfast or midday meal, and no joint press conference to follow.

The nearly 20 months of Mr Netanyahu's government have shown his main strategy to be that of survival at all costs. He has swung to the right in the wake of Mr Levy's resignation because he felt the right-wing threat to his coalition was more potent than the moaning from the moderates. If that has now put him on collision course with President Clinton, and Israel on the decline to more confrontation with the Palestinians, then, apparently, so be it.

The only development that could yet force a change of course would be the departure of the unhappy Minister of Defence, Mr Yitzhak Mordechai.

If Mr Mordechai goes, so too does Mr Netanyahu's Knesset majority. The Prime Minister might have to woo the opposition Labour party into a new coalition, by moderating his peace policies, or risk losing a no-confidence motion and facing new elections.

Usurped by Mr Sharon, Mr Mordechai has this week boycotted several planning meetings with Mr Netanyahu, and continues to mutter about possible resignation.

On Thursday, he spurned Mr Netanyahu again, in favour of a heart-to-heart meeting with President Ezer Weizman. All eyes - American, Palestinian and Israeli - are on him now.