The Taoiseach's Cabinet reshuffle will be based less on new talent and more on protecting Fianna Fáil seats, writes Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent
Standing in the courtyard of Government Buildings on Wednesday, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern looked fresh and ready following his summer break in Co Kerry.
Despite Fianna Fáil's local election drubbing, which highlighted serious organisational problems, Ahern's relaxed air was, perhaps, understandable. The EU presidency is done and dusted, successfully. The economy is purring nicely. The Exchequer, barring accidents, will be well-stocked to fight the next general election. Meanwhile, Fianna Fáil (FF) TDs, bar Michael Smith, carefully minded their Ps and Qs over the dog days of August as the Cabinet reshuffle edged ever closer.
Even Smith has scurried to get back on the Taoiseach's good side - witness last Thursday's extraordinary RTÉ Prime Time interview. During the interview, Smith, though a seasoned campaigner, seemed close to the edge over speculation that his ministerial career is heading to a close.
Though the reshuffle has for months been promised for late September, Fianna Fáil TDs are clearly becoming jittery as time ticks slowly by. Ahern, however, who has bought an extended period of peace and quiet, will lose little sleep over the fact that many of his colleagues are tossing and turning. Certainly, he did little to calm ministers' frayed nerves during his one-to-one meetings with several dozen TDs in June and July.
"He deliberately created an environment where TDs felt free to dump on their own local Minister. 'Your man isn't doing well, is he?' - that sort of thing," one Cork TD commented.
Predicting Cabinet reshuffles is always dangerous, particularly with Ahern, who keeps his own counsel and leaves everything fluid until the last. Although all concerned deny it, Smith and Joe Walsh, for instance, enjoyed last-minute reprieves in the days before Ahern announced his 2002 Cabinet.
Rescued then by agri-business chiefs, Walsh, reading the signs well, has now cleverly withdrawn with his reputation intact and his future prospects enhanced.
Saved in 2002 by Charlie McCreevy, Smith's August disturbance is seen by party colleagues as a direct, and foolish challenge to the Taoiseach's authority.
"The reshuffle will not be a reshuffle if Smith stays. He has to go now. For the life of me I can't figure out what he thought he was doing," one Munster Fianna Fáil TD commented. Many Fianna Fáil TDs agree. Those who are not as exercised about Smith's actions are content to pretend to be if they think it it will damage Smith's reputation, hurry his departure and create room at the trough.
Back in 2002, it was believed Smith or Walsh would end up as Ceann Comhairle midway through the Dáil, a move that would require Dr Rory O'Hanlon to stand down. However, O'Hanlon, whose prickly hackles are raised by such talk, insists that he never gave any such promise and was not asked to do so.
The Tipperary North TD has one point in his favour, though it might not be strong enough to save him: Ahern's need for a geographical spread of ministers. If he is fired, Smith should be replaced by someone from the north Munster region (counties Tipperary, Limerick, or Clare) if the usual political etiquette is to be respected.
Here difficulties emerge. In the past, Ahern has had plenty of chances to put Limerick East's Willie O'Dea into Cabinet. He has always failed to do so. In June's local elections, which have been analysed at length by Ahern, O'Dea presided over a disastrous performance in the Treaty City.
EVERYTHING IN THE coming reshuffle will be about protecting party seats. Winning more of them is unlikely, so Fianna must try to hold the line. All other considerations will be put to one side. Despite the media's demand for a fresh Cabinet look, Ahern wants senior and junior ministers who can protect seats.
"Will Willie get three FF seats in Limerick with Cabinet rank? Or is Bertie just wasting a job on him because only two can be won? That is the issue," said one colleague.
However, O'Dea, now a Minister of State, has batted for the Government on difficult nights when other, more senior colleagues went to ground. "Whatever else you'd say about him, you never panic if you see him on television. Which is a damn sight more than you'd say about other people," said one TD.
If O'Dea, a temperamental individual, does not ascend, Ahern could choose to reappoint Clare's Síle De Valera (highly unlikely), or jump Tony Killeen from the backbenches. The latter move would be popular with the parliamentary party, though the Taoiseach has shown little sign of favouring Killeen to date. In addition, Ahern has frequently voiced his belief that TDs should rise in stages through the ranks - from the backbenches, to Minister of State, to Cabinet.
However, Ahern must spring some surprises if his reshuffle, which has been speculated about ad nauseam, is to have any novelty factor. One backbencher in line for Minister of State rank, and possibly all the way into the Cabinet, is Cavan/Monaghan TD Brendan Smith. Quiet and well-liked, he has moulded Fianna Fáil's Cavan organisation into shape, and has kept the Sinn Féin (SF) threat at bay, unlike neighbouring Monaghan, where SF is now rampant.
Geography may certainly help the Minister for Education, Noel Dempsey, whose political obituary has been written frequently in recent weeks. Tough, honourable, but as awkward and as stubborn as can be imagined, Dempsey's trouble-prone conduct drives colleagues wild with fury. One day, one fears, he will go too far. However, Ahern seems to admire his pluck. In any event, Co Meath, soon to be split into two three-seat constituencies, will be better protected with a minister in residence.
Martin Cullen, at the Department of the Environment, is another who has attracted bad headlines, following the electronic voting shambles. Although the policy was not his - Noel Dempsey designed it - the execution was sloppy, especially as the system's flaws were not quietly exposed earlier. Unfortunately for Cullen, the issue has become one of the few stories likely to remain in the public memory, along with the Punchestown equestrian centre. In addition, he failed to stop the local election meltdown in party support in Waterford city, where, extraordinarily, it now has just one councillor.
The geographical factor comes into the equation also when one looks at the future of Éamon Ó Cuiv, the Minister for Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs. So far, the grandson of Eamon De Valera has worked liked like a trooper, staying at meetings until 3 a.m. if necessary. Yet he has disappointed massively.
Unhappy with the performance of nearly all Fianna Fáil's leading west of Ireland figures, the Taoiseach is known to be concerned about the party's declining fortunes there. However, his options are limited.
He sacked Galway West's Frank Fahey from the Cabinet in 2002, only to appoint him as a Minister of State - not, mind you, that Fahey has ever shown any gratitude. Galway East's Minister of State, Noel Treacy, is not in favour either, having presided over a shambles in the local elections, and he did not take the hint to run for the European Parliament early on.
Mayo TD John Carty could rise to the junior ranks, benefiting from Beverley Flynn's departure, while Roscommon's Michael Finneran might do so also.
Though facts are few, five Cabinet jobs must have new occupants: Finance, Foreign Affairs, Agriculture and Food, Enterprise, Trade and Employment, and Defence, assuming Smith is pushed.
Besides bringing in two or three new ministers, Ahern could play Cabinet merry-go-round with everybody else bar the Minister for Justice, Michael McDowell, and the Attorney General, Rory Brady. However, it is not clear how far he needs to go. The belief that the Cabinet is tired and must be refreshed with much new blood is probably an exaggeration. Blessed with improving figures, the probability of tax cuts and higher social spending, Ahern may believe that largesse, and not personalities, will decide the next election.
Joe Walsh's departure from Cabinet creates problems for Fianna Fáil in Cork, where the party will be trying to defend 12 out of 20 seats next time. Though Micheál Martin will stay in the Cabinet, he will probably move from Health to Foreign Affairs, or Enterprise, Trade and Employment. Given that Brian Cowen is going to Finance, a transfer to anything other Enterprise or Health will be seen as a demotion for Martin.
Cork East's Ned O'Keeffe is unlikely to make a return to the junior ranks, even though Ahern enjoyed teasing people in Co Kerry with the prospect while on his holiday there. However, Cork will have to be given something to compensate for the loss of Joe Walsh, so one can reasonably predict that Cork North Central's Billy Kelleher is in line for a junior post.
CHIEF WHIP MARY Hanafin seems destined for a full ministry, particularly as Ahern wants to emphasise FF's gentler side. The highly capable Hanafin was disappointed not to get a department in 2002, though she learnt relatively quickly to hide such feelings, at least in public. Her departure from the chief whip's office would create a vacancy usually filled by a Dublin-based TD, or one in close commuting distance of the capital.
The job could go to Minister of State Brian Lenihan, who has often been tipped for Cabinet office only to be denied, but Ahern does not like him, and never has.
Wicklow's Dick Roche is another Minister of State talked about as a candidate for promotion, particularly given a sterling performance during the EU presidency. However, his abrasive personality would surely rule him out of the chief whip's office.
"You wouldn't have a parliamentary party in a fortnight if Dick was put in charge of that," says one TD. "He gets a full Cabinet job, or nothing. Bertie was talking kindly about him frequently, but you wouldn't want to bet your mortgage upon that."
Left exhausted by the Department of Justice, Equality and Law Reform, John O'Donoghue has done well in Arts and Sport and may now be ready for another challenge. Seamus Brennan's position is in question because of the transport unions' anger about CIÉ, Aer Lingus and Aer Rianta reform, though this has been over-egged.
The Progressive Democrat leader, Tánaiste Mary Harney, who wants to quit the Department of Enterprise, is not likely to be granted the Transport plum with dozens of new roads to be opened by 2007. Dermot Ahern, currently running the Department of Communications, Marine and Natural Resources, is certainly expecting a transfer, possibly to Foreign Affairs.
Although much of the attention will focus on the Cabinet divvy-up, the ministers of state job share-out is even more important in the battle to protect Fianna Fáil seats. Each junior minister gets three or four constituency staff.
"You go to Dublin on a Monday with the notebook full of details. If you throw it on the table for officials each of the constituents will have an answer by Friday. Believe me, that helps to win seats," said one TD, eager at the prospect.
Who's Confident?
Brian Cowen: Heading for Finance
Dermot Ahern: In line for a transfer to a bigger department, possibly Foreign Affairs
John O'Donoghue: Has had a rest in Arts and Sport after Justice. Should be heading back into a more frontline role
Michael McDowell: Comfortably set to stay where he is
Who's Nervous?
Michael Smith: Desperately trying to cling on, prepared to plead on television for his job
Martin Cullen: Bungled e-voting. Fears demotion within Cabinet
Micheál Martin: Wants another job, but it must be a big one
Seamus Brennan: Has taken a lot of flak in recent months
Noel Dempsey: Attracts trouble like a moth. May be moved from Education
Éamon Ó Cuiv: Has underperformed in Community, Rural and Gaeltacht Affairs