"ON MONDAY we go to Amsterdam with our heads held high because of the results we've obtained, the macroeconomic convergence we've pulled off, something which many did not believe possible. We are in line with four of the five convergency criteria set out by the Maastricht Treaty, with only the National Debt-GDP ratio not in line..."
The Italian Prime Minister, Mr Romano Prodi, sounded the above upbeat note last week. On the eve of the European Council in Amsterdam, his words encapsulate the current Italian mood.
After a winter of discontent, when Italy was described regularly as the black sheep likely to foul up the single European monetary family, Italy goes to Amsterdam somewhat relieved that the heat is off it. Rome is also convinced that German budgetary problems and French unemployment concerns can only help its own single currency credentials.
The timing and the focus of Mr Prodi's message were not irrelevant. Although the Amsterdam summit is due to hammer out a new treaty which could transform the shape of the EU, Mr Prodi chose to focus on what Italy, and other EU states, see as the burning issue of the day - EMU.
Italy's business and political elite has long considered monetary union as a Holy Grail. Mr Prodi staked his political future to the single currency mast last autumn when he promised to resign if Italy did not join in the first wave of euro countries. Last week he underlined his belief in the euro by urging the new French Prime Minister, Mr Lionel Jospin, to sign the stability pact at Amsterdam.
The events of recent weeks, from Finance Minister Theo Waigel's failure to have German gold reserves revalued to the French Socialists' general election victory, have convinced Italy that its senior European partners will have difficulty keeping it out of monetary union.
"We are no longer bottom of the class," said the Finance Minister, Mr Vicenzo Visco.
Mr Visco's comments seemed confirmed by the OECD's June Economic Outlook report, released last week, which forecast that Italian, German and French public deficits would all hit 3.2 per cent of GDP for 1997. (That same forecast, however, suggested that Italy would reach 3.8 per cent in 1998, again raising German doubts about the "sustainability" of Italy's newly found fiscal rectitude.)
Since taking office in May of last year, Mr Prodi has introduced £41 billion worth of cuts and savings that have seen the state deficit/GDP ratio drop from a 1996 figure of 6.7 per cent. He clearly believes that Italy has done its part, while the Italian establishment finds it difficult to accept that its European partners would consider omitting an EU founder member from such an important development as EMU.
In that role of foundermember Italy remains an enthusiastic European, fully supportive of enlargement. In that context, it goes to Amsterdam keen to argue for, among other things, the development of a common foreign policy, the institution of a "Mr Europe" Foreign Minister, the incorporation of the WEU into the EU bloc, the implementation of the Schengen border agreements (by next October, in Italy's case), the extension of qualified majority voting in the Council of Ministers and extra powers for both the European Parliament and the Commission President.
All of the above, however, are subject to the creation of a climate in which it is accepted that the new Europe cannot be dictated to by accountancy and economic considerations alone. Mr Prodi was not slow to make the point in the wake of the French socialist victory two weeks ago: "This votes expresses a call for ... a return to a Europe which refinds the roots of its own great traditions, namely, that while, you can consider reforming the welfare state, you just can't simply throw it out the window."