Jiang's visit to US promises rewards but could go wrong

The first visit of a Chinese leader to the US since the Tiananmen Square crushing of student protesters in 1989 has been prepared…

The first visit of a Chinese leader to the US since the Tiananmen Square crushing of student protesters in 1989 has been prepared down to the smallest detail but it could still go badly wrong. Opposition to the eight-day visit will dog President Jiang Zemin around the US, emanating from supporters of Tibet, human rights activists, opponents of persecution of Christians, trade unionists and Taiwan dissidents.

There are nostalgic memories of how Mr Jiang's predecessor, the diminutive Deng Xiaoping, won hearts when he hammed it up at a Texas rodeo with a 10-gallon hat as the guest of President Jimmy Carter back in 1979. But Tiananmen Square soured the gradual easing of relations across the Pacific and Mr Jiang's role in the crackdown is recalled in every newspaper article preparing for the visit.

Hollywood has ensured that those days will not be forgotten, nor the Chinese occupation of Tibet. Richard Gere, the star of the film, Red Corner, depicting the savage treatment of a US lawyer falsely accused of murder in China, has organised a "stateless dinner" in Washington next week to mock the state dinner in the White House which will be the highlight of Mr Jiang's visit.

Brad Pitt's film, Seven Years in Tibet, is already filling cinemas across the US. Martin Scorsese's film on Tibet and Chinese persecution there, Kundun, is soon to be released.

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Yet President Jiang is still hoping for a "substantive but noncontroversial" visit. The very fact that it is taking place at all is a positive sign, as at the time of the return of Hong Kong to Chinese sovereignty conservative forces in the US were calling for the cancellation of the visit if China did not respect the guarantees it had given to the former British colony.

But the human rights record of China still touches a raw nerve here. The presidential contender, the billionaire publisher, Steve Forbes, this week taunted Mr Clinton and the Vice-President, Al Gore, for being silent before the Chinese government's abuses of its own citizens. His list included slave labour camps, involuntary sterilisation of women, forced abortions, execution of prisoners to get body parts for sale, "death factory" orphanages and imprisonment of Catholic and Protestant clergymen.

So protests are inevitable along Mr Jiang's route, which will take in colonial Williamsburg, Washington, Philadelphia's historic Independence Hall and Liberty Bell, New York and Wall Street, Harvard University and California. Dr Henry Kissinger, who helped begin the thaw in the US-China relationship under Richard Nixon, has expressed dismay at the opportunities such an itinerary allows for protests.

But business is business. Behind the scenes officials in Washington and Beijing are putting the final touches to an agreement which will allow Mr Clinton to authorise the export of nuclear reactors to China in return for a pledge by Mr Jiang that exports of Chinese missiles and nuclear technology to Iran will be suspended.

The rewards for US exporters like Westinghouse and General Electric would be huge, as much as $15 billion over the next 12 years, according to some estimates. China is also said to be ready to announce the purchase of $1.7 billion worth of Boeing aircraft.

There are hopes in Washington that in addition to the commercial rewards from the Jiang visit, there will be some human rights concessions as well. The release of some of the more prominent dissidents for "medical reasons" could be announced. This would help deflect some of expected protests at the visit and be a feather in the Clinton cap.

So what is in it for Mr Jiang? Will he get to sing Love Me Tender, one of his favourite songs, at the White House dinner? More seriously, the visit is intended to stabilise the relationship between both countries at the end of a century which at one point saw their armies fighting each other in Korea. As Mr Jiang put it in an interview with the Washington Post this week, he will discuss with Mr Clinton "the guiding principles governing China-US relations pointing towards the 21st century".

President Clinton has told China it has "stifled political dissent to a degree and in ways we feel are fundamentally wrong".

In a radio address broadcast to China and around the world last night, Mr Clinton gave a generally optimistic view of their summit meeting. He is hoping for agreements on lowering trade barriers, improving the global environment and combatting drug trafficking. But a breakthrough on human rights issues is not expected.

President Clinton said the US has no other choice but to keep relations open with China. "It will for good or ill play a very large role in shaping the 21st century," he said.