Kaczynski twin looks unlikely to win election

TWO DAYS after burying his twin brother, Polish opposition leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski lacks enough popular support to succeed …

TWO DAYS after burying his twin brother, Polish opposition leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski lacks enough popular support to succeed him as president.

A new poll suggests that acting Polish president Bronislaw Komorowski, from the ruling centrist Civic Platform (PO), is most likely to succeed the late Lech Kaczynski as Polish head of state.

Jaroslaw Kaczynski has yet to say whether he will run for his national conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) in the presidential election, likely to be held on June 20th.

However, a poll for the leading Fakt tabloid yesterday suggested the politician, generally viewed as more divisive and aggressive than his late brother, would attract just one-third of voters.

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Even the late president was unlikely to have won a second term, with polls giving him just 20 per cent support before his death.

The PiS governing council is likely to meet on Sunday to select a candidate for the election, with pressure building for Mr Kaczynski to stand.

The PiS delegates may decide to hand the candidacy to a younger candidate after the Fakt poll showed 55 per cent support going to Mr Komorowski.

As parliamentary speaker, the moustachioed Solidarity activist has cut a sovereign figure since he was thrust into the spotlight as acting president on April 10th after an air crash in western Russia killed Lech Kaczynski, his wife and a high-ranking delegation totalling 96.

Among the dead was Jerzy Szmajdzinski, a third presidential race candidate from the left-wing SLD opposition party.

A second poll, conducted by the Homo Homini Institute five days after the crash, gave 31 per cent support to Mr Komorowski and just 4 per cent support to the surviving Kaczynski twin.

If no candidate reaches an absolute majority of voter support, a second poll will be held two weeks later, most likely on July 4th.

Some 20 funerals were held across Poland yesterday to honour leading members of the Kaczynski presidential cabinet who died in the air crash.

Polish investigators have said it could take months to determine why exactly the Polish presidential aircraft came down in fog near Smolensk, western Russia.

Initial media reports blamed pilot error, but investigators say they are still keeping an open mind.

Families of those who died in the air crash have begun to receive compensation.

A total of 87 families have received payments of 40,000 zlotys (€10,300) each, with additional payments likely for families with children and non-working widows.

Derek Scally

Derek Scally

Derek Scally is an Irish Times journalist based in Berlin