Still low in the opinion polls, Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny argues that in 2004 his party will show that it is ready for power, he tells Mark Hennessy, Political Correspondent
Sitting in his Leinster House office just before Christmas, the Fine Gael leader, Mr Enda Kenny looked back on a year, confident that he has stopped the decline in the party's fortunes.
"We have come quite a distance from where we were when we regrouped after the last general election. We suffered a pretty devastating result," said Mr Kenny, who is now 18 months in the top job.
Internal changes have borne fruit. Fine Gael in the Dáil is sharper than before, though there is little sign yet that it is reaping any benefit from an electorate unfocused on politics.
His confidence level has improved noticeably since his first address as party leader. His speech to delegates gathered in the Radisson Hotel in Galway in early December met with generally good reviews.
Standing in the hotel's kitchen 90 seconds before going on stage, Mr Kenny knew his political future was in the balance: "I said to myself, 'This is an opportunity. And if you mess it up people will say, 'He hasn't got it and the party has not measured up'.
"I think the reaction resonated with Fine Gael people, and non-Fine Gael people. They said this outfit is capable of competing and has a vision for the country that is different, that it has restored realism to politics," he said.
"There are three audiences: those in front who might just want to hear you give out about the Government, those outside who will flick through the channels.
"If you don't hold their attention during the first few seconds then they are gone.
"And, of course, the media who will say, 'What did he say?', or 'Did he have anything to say?'.
"You have to draw a balance between all of those and still be relevant. From my perspective it was very important to be able to articulate a vision drawn from people themselves."
The speech buttressed the party's TDs, too: "I just think that the party is now united in the sense that it believes, genuinely believes, that this is a cause that they can win as distinct from banding together because voters are out there waiting for us."
Though the Fine Gael leader acknowledges his own responsibility for rebuilding the party's fortunes, he made it clear that his responsibility starts from the date of his leadership.
Accepting that FG got 28 per cent in the 1999 local elections, he said: "When I was honoured with the leadership of Fine Gael after the last general election we were at 22 per cent in the polls. That is the base that I am starting from."
Repeating the 1999 results will be difficult: "We got four out of five in some districts, three out of four in others. That is very difficult to hold on to because you have new candidates, different locations."
In case there is any misunderstanding, Mr Kenny goes back to drive his message home: "The last time the people voted for Fine Gael we got 22 per cent of the vote. I was honoured with the leadership after that.
"That is the base that I am working from. That is my base. That is what I was left with and what I have got to work with and I am working off that."
Though the heights achieved in 1999 may be beyond his grasp now, Mr Kenny is insistent that it can provide the base for the forthcoming general elections in 2006/7.
"We have broken up the cosy relationships that existed in some of the districts where you had candidate 'X' in situ for many years contesting with no competition. We have had local election conventions in many areas . . .
"In Hollymount, outside Ballinrobe, 700 people turned up. That is bigger than the PD annual conference in a three-seat district with four candidates and over 630 people voted.
"They fought like tigers, not just for the convention but for the month beforehand. There is real competition. We have 21 year-olds running in South Kerry, in Mullingar," he said.
"What I want out of the local elections are candidates who can win Dáil seats. That is what this is about, ultimately. Quantity is, of course, critical, but even more so is quality."
Once the locals are over, FG needs to sit down and agree a platform with Labour: "Voters want to see evidence of an electoral pact that they can examine and say, 'Is this what I am being asked to buy?'
"Now is not the time for this, but we will obviously have to give time to this sometime before a general election. We will co-operate with the Labour Party and work with them."
Following the general election disaster, Mr Kenny appointed his frontbench, offering high-profile roles to newcomers such as Laois/Offaly TD, Ms Olwyn Enright and Waterford's Mr John Deasy.
So far, the team has not gelled in the eyes of observers, though there are solid individual performances, such as the deputy leader, Dublin North Central TD, Mr Richard Bruton.
Though Mr Kenny offers no public criticism of colleagues, he quickly made it clear that he intends to announce a reshuffle during 2004: "That will happen. Yes, I will reshuffle the frontbench, absolutely.
"I will do that for change, for performance, for ability, but also to put out the strongest team that we can field. The locals are 20 weeks away. The general election is 165 weeks.
"I am going to put out the strongest team that this party can field. In any championship match you are going to find that you are going to put out your best players on the day to perform.
"Some did not have any experience of taking a brief, of being able to focus on issues. We did not have a research group to assist in drafting amendments, or how to take committee stages of Bills. There has been a learning experience there."
Returning to work this month, Mr Kenny's frontbenchers will need to bring a plan of action to last until June: "I said the same thing the last time we spoke at length about this, but I did not say then that I would carry out a reshuffle."
Meanwhile, there is the matter of the President, Mrs McAleese, who has yet to announce whether she wants a second term of office. Even if she does, the issue could still be pushed to a contest in November.
With no viable candidate in view, Mr Kenny clearly has no appetite for a battle: "I think she has done a first-class job at home and abroad. I respect her greatly. I can't speak for her and I don't know if she wants to run again.
"If she does decide to nominate herself, as is her right, as a non-party candidate I would certainly give serious consideration that the Fine Gael party should decide not to oppose her," he said.
His support is conditional on the President, who ran under a Fianna Fáil banner in 1997, nominating herself as a non-party candidate and staying that way for the duration of a campaign, if there is one.
However, the Labour Party could queer his pitch by running its own candidate: "That is a matter for Pat Rabbitte and the Labour Party about what it is that they want to do. I wouldn't want to interfere in their business in that sense at all.
"I just think that if President McAleese does decide to nominate herself she has done a very good job for the country and in those set of circumstances I would certainly go back to the parliamentary party and say, 'This has changed the usual business'.
"I say that against the background that my focus is to get candidates for the locals who are going to win Dáil seats and move on to serious preparation for the general election."
Insisting that FG has not failed to find a candidate, he said: "We are 20 weeks from the locals and the European. It does not rank in the same category at all as the locals or the preparations for the general election."
In the meantime, Fine Gael must prove that it is relevant to voters, and cope with disillusionment about the whole political system following years of tribunal allegations, revelations and findings.
He said the party had to deal with "the cynicism that has grown up with the whole political system and around politicians and the drift of politics from the community".
And Fine Gael must define its own place in the political landscape: "I think that there has been a great centralisation in Ireland over recent years, it is difficult to be individual and apart and still relevant on the political field.
"I tried to do that very clearly on issues like benchmarking, Iraq and neutrality, drink and crime, bin charges, or whatever, and stand up and say our piece. So that people see that Fine Gael has addressed the issues and that we are clear."
Over recent months, Fine Gael has concentrated on inflation, using its www.ripoff.ie website to hear public complaints about everything from car insurance to the price of a sparkling water and lime.
The website "actually had thousands of hits, to be quite genuine about it, and hundreds of individual stories. That's of relevance to people, not just in letting them tell their stories but of connecting to a major political party".
However, the focus has to shift from the price of drink onto more major issues, he concedes: "We want to move onto issues like breaking up the restrictions in the legal profession, banking, insurance.
"The Competition Authority recently produced a report on the canine industry. I think it would be far more relevant to know why we can't open up the legal profession, etc. We are going to look at that in a serious way."
Despite the Government's clear belief that it has turned the corner, the Fine Gael leader argues the die is cast: "The people are tired of this Government. I think the electorate has switched off.
"It is like deciding to change the car. You are at it a good while. Then some morning you wake up and you have decided, and say, 'That's it'. I think the Government are really vulnerable on the way that they have let down so many people."
The public is struggling to cope with the pace of change in recent years, believes Mr Kenny: "The editor of the local paper in Dundalk said to me that we have lost a sense of place.
"He has to produce two supplements a year telling people where the supermarket is, where the leisure facilities are, where the football pitches are because they have been forced to move from various parts of the country because of house prices.
"All of this is a social pressure that we have never had before. Government has drifted along from point to point without actually attempting to do something about this. I think the electorate are tired. They want a change."
Criticising the Government's view of society, he said: "The Community Games people were in around this table some weeks ago. They met the Minister for Sport and told him that they have no home after 2005.
"Five hundred thousand children participate in community games every year and yet he says that he could not give them any projection ahead. Why can't he say that he is going to draw up a contract with the University of Limerick?
"It has the best sport facilities in the country, which are vacant during the summer. Why can't he say that they are available for the next 10 years at 'X' cost, along with an increased budget to more volunteers there for the safety of the children."
The Fine Gael leader happily seized upon the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern's quip in the Dáil in December when he said that political ethics equals "getting in, and staying in", in words that will surely come back to haunt Mr Ahern.
"I was actually surprised that he said that. I don't know that he meant to say it in the way that it came out, as is often the case with the Taoiseach. But it means in Taoiseach-speak, 'Do whatever you have to do'.
"Does anybody know the real Bertie? Does anybody know him? He is a very personable man. I get on very well with him. Anytime I have had dealings with him he has been unfailingly courteous in the way that he does his business with me.
"But does anybody know his mind for the country? His brand of ethics is to stay in here. We are for the war in Iraq. We are against the war in Iraq, I wonder did he think Donald Rumsfeld was going to catch up with him."
Questioned about the Barron inquiry's criticism of the 1973-'77 Fine Gael/Labour Coalition's handling of the Dublin/Monaghan bombings, Mr Kenny is clearly uncomfortable.
"I am going to look at an analysis of the Barron report from some of our legal people here. I don't know if under the terms of reference given whether he strayed beyond any of those in comments like this, or not.
"I came in here in 1975. There are now only two TDs who were here then when it happened, Seamus Pattison and John Bruton. In any event, this is a full generation ago.
"The volume of queries that have come in about it has been very small. It is of direct impact to people who lost family and loved ones in Dublin/Monaghan. But it does not seem to have struck a deep chord with people."
The Oireachtas Justice Committee hearings into the report by Mr Justice Barron next month should probe the actions of politicians who succeeded the Fine Gael/Labour administration.
"While Barron identifies one government and draws his implications, every government since then had that on their desks as well. I don't know all the details the State has given," he said.
However, he opposed the summoning of former Taoiseach, Mr Liam Cosgrave: "I would not like to see Mr Cosgrave put through the hoops here and I am quite sure that he will make his own decision, if and when he receives his own invitation.
"The committee will not have compellability powers to call in people anyway. But I am quite sure that Garret FitzGerald and Paddy Cooney will respond in their own way."
Criticising the Government's treatment of the families of Omagh victims, Mr Kenny said: "It is over 30 years to Dublin/Monaghan case, six years with Omagh. There is a parallel here with that. I would think that the committee would consider this."
Looking ahead, Mr Kenny knows the next 12 months will do much to decide his own fortunes: "I am starting my 29th year in here. You only get the cards in life once, and you play them when they come.
"Because if you don't and if you live long enough you will always regret them. They say that Opposition leadership is the lousiest job in politics. You are up against the might and the Machiavellianism of government every day.
"But the sun still shines. If you are driven by a sense of commitment that you are in politics to make a difference, that is a great reservoir of strength," said the 55-year-old Mayoman.